tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post7941658443782725051..comments2023-11-05T18:54:47.602+08:00Comments on Fusion Investor: OSKVI NAV vs Share PriceSenghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08265958046623158053noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-39661098911921735322007-05-18T16:18:00.000+08:002007-05-18T16:18:00.000+08:00OSKVI quater reports might coming out in this few ...OSKVI quater reports might coming out in this few days. It might be the key to drive OSKVI to uptrend or even more downtrend ... Let see... ( I bought some OSKVI after ur comment) ....vegebotakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07849430305630956218noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-21799917233830496012007-05-17T14:24:00.000+08:002007-05-17T14:24:00.000+08:00Hi Ben,Thanks for visiting.Yes, technically, after...Hi Ben,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for visiting.<BR/><BR/>Yes, technically, after a rapid ascent since Jun 30, 06, the stock reached its peak on Nov 16, 07, and started on its medium term decline till today. Yes, technically, it might find bottom around 2.3-2.35 region, yet there is also a risk that it might not, and could continue southward. Yes, a TA practitioner would do best to avoid this stock, at least for now.<BR/><BR/>In calling this stock last Friday, it was actually a tough battle between my "Buffet+Soros" side vs my TA side. In this specific instance, the deciding factor was Buffett, who never paid any attention to TA in his youth (and today), and still has a reasonably good investment record after first discovered Graham.<BR/><BR/>Yes, Malaysia today is not the same environment as US 40-50 years ago (when Buffett first practiced Graham's style of investing), but in some ways (especially from a fundamental side), it is similar, since there were still many businesses in the US then with fairly simple business models, like OSKVI. Actually, OSKVI's fundamental analysis turns out to be fairly simple as it has a simple business model, balance sheet & financial statements, if compared to current US conglomerates with highly diversified businesses in many countries across the world - the latter I find much, much more difficult to evaluate and would rely more on analyst reports and TA. <BR/><BR/>I also personally believe that when there are more investment blogs that pays attention to fundamental analysis, Malaysia market will benefit in the long-term and the stock market becomes more efficient. I think with increasing technology and Internet, this is an inevitable global trend. <BR/><BR/>In any case, I'm glad you came along to caution me and the visitors here on OSKVI's TA. Certainly it's prudent to heed it. As per my earlier caution on OSKVI, don't buy more than 5% of one's long-term capital into this stock, as despite its 6%-8% dividend yield (net-gross), there is always a risk that it could tie up one's capital longer than one might expect (although my expectation is that the value should be unlocked in 2-3 years time from various catalysts that I expect to emerge).<BR/><BR/>Cheers!<BR/>Seng.Senghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08265958046623158053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-77097258357798427392007-05-17T10:51:00.000+08:002007-05-17T10:51:00.000+08:00Seng,A superb analysis, I would say. However its v...Seng,<BR/>A superb analysis, I would say. However its value is not reflected in the chart. Well, if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and has feathers, probably it is a duck. <BR/>Since the formation of a top on Nov 16, 07, the stock has been in a steady downtrend. It may find support at 2.30. Unless the downtrend is reversed or show sign of reversing, it is better to avoid the stock for now.<BR/>Cheers!<BR/>BenBen Ganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04925380489441654780noreply@blogger.com