tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post848931118859826208..comments2023-11-05T18:54:47.602+08:00Comments on Fusion Investor: HEXZA - Introduction and Quarterly Earnings CommentsSenghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08265958046623158053noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-57668020027104738112007-04-17T18:43:00.000+08:002007-04-17T18:43:00.000+08:00Hi Seng,I find hexza a very good buy with Eps of R...Hi Seng,<BR/>I find hexza a very good buy with Eps of Rm 0.115 per share,nta about Rm 1.20 and cash backing pershare of Rm 0.35 per share.Operating cashflow per share of Rm 0.12 per share<BR/>At present at Rm 0.67 it is trading at a low p/e of 6 times very undevalue.<BR/>Actually at this price we are actually buying at a lower price than the major shareholder who purchase the company 20 years ago. The only negative part is that there are many disappointed shareholders who want to get out disregarding FA and some esos of Rm 0.53.Over time we will make alot of money need abit of time.<BR/>This is a very wonderful investmnt and i will buy more.<BR/>I remember Asiatic has the same problem fluctuate betw Rm 0.50 to Rm 1.30 from 1999 to 2003.Look at the price today more than Rm 5.00.Patience is the 2nd most investment criteria other than knowledge.grahamsmunhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02297314909202423784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-61115449533422008982007-04-03T12:39:00.000+08:002007-04-03T12:39:00.000+08:00Greenbull,I'm just reading your comment here in mo...Greenbull,<BR/><BR/>I'm just reading your comment here in more detail, after having answered your later query under "The Intelligent Investor". <BR/><BR/>I'm sorry to hear that you personally don't have the time nor inclination to learn TA, and FA "maybe just a little". In my experience, one cannot become very good at investing, if one isn't willing to make the effort. I sense you realize this within you. I encourage you to seek advice from a licensed professional, or consider professional investment management, even if you have to pay them a management fee.<BR/><BR/>You may not like to hear this, but investing in stock market is not just about me giving you a list of 5 stocks. Once you buy them, what do you do next? If the price goes up by 5 sen, do you sell or do you hold? If it then goes down 10 sen, do you buy more or do you hold? If the next quarterly earnings report show decreased earnings, do you sell or do you hold? To me, it's more complicated than just giving someone unique, like yourself, a list of 5 stocks, and then go away. If I do this, I would personally not like myself, because I think that would be irresponsible, to assume responsibility for recommending stocks to a specific unique individual (in this case, yourself who prefer not to do a lot of study), and then, walking away. Therefore, as a matter of personal principle, I have never recommended any stock to any specific individuals circumstances. Also, it wouldn't be practical. If I start giving tailored stock advice for free, then, everybody would be rushing and asking me. Then, I'll be swamped. So, I hope you understand that whilst I'm happy to share what I buy/sell, what I think about my own stocks, I cannot really give tailored advise to specific individual requests.Senghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08265958046623158053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-9023445601162785932007-04-01T19:44:00.000+08:002007-04-01T19:44:00.000+08:00hi Seng,thank you for sharing your counters. i am ...hi Seng,<BR/>thank you for sharing your counters. i am rather green in equity. i don't have the time nor the inclination to learn ta. fa may be just a little. i find stock market is a good place to build character. you learn to be knowledgeable, unimpulsive, courageous, patient, focussed and calm. just that the tuition fee can be expensive. back to your portfolio, if you were to recommend someone like me five counters to go in at this juncture, basing on fa and ta, what would you recommend? just a suggestion, strictly no obligations either way.greenbullhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06631907582019338409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-57245565979040071782007-03-29T17:21:00.000+08:002007-03-29T17:21:00.000+08:00sifu seng,hope you can come up with more research ...sifu seng,<BR/><BR/>hope you can come up with more research like this,<BR/>we the follower and reader will sure benefit from it.<BR/>the best we can do is send to you brands essence of chicken to keep the energy full.<BR/><BR/>thanksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15992124593120230266noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-9142442877153741792007-03-29T13:44:00.000+08:002007-03-29T13:44:00.000+08:00Seng, Very happy to see your reply. :)One more rea...Seng, <BR/><BR/>Very happy to see your reply. :)<BR/>One more reason to use TA for timing of purchase and sale with the fundamentalist idea of markets are crazy. <BR/>Markets are crazy - so its best to use something to measure their craziness!!! :)<BR/>I think your assumptions are very conservative as it is. Fundamentally very strong buy. TA wise, very soon, we should see the breakout. This bad habit of mine to time the market - say in two weeks time. OK, its never 100% accurate :P.<BR/>TA wise, it has its weaknesses, hence the terms like bear/bull trap, false breakouts, etc. Doubt that there is an actual holy grail. But the odds are of course up to the trader/investor.<BR/>Actually my aim is normally to:<BR/>1) Buy higher as in after breakout<BR/>2) Sell lower after start of downtrend. <BR/><BR/>Of course, being a greedy person, and also a perfectionist :P, I do try to aim to:<BR/>1) Buy before breakout<BR/>2) Sell before end of the rally.<BR/><BR/>Very difficult to do. Sometimes, I ended up wasting commission, after I sold, another breakout happens, a valid one. I reentered, lose a couple of points in opportunity cost and commission fees. But this I do, normally would mitigate the risk I am taking.<BR/><BR/>I also like your liquidation valuation. Perfecto! It gives a peace of mind, knowing that your money invested would likely grow, instead of falling into the abyss.<BR/>Being a TA centred person, plus, I do not have the luxury of time to complete a quality analysis, such as yours, I do not have much safety margin. I naturally take more risk. Of course, I am looking towards reducing this risk, and I am glad to find this blog :)<BR/>Keep up the good work!Trader Maxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16470236813764490432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-61260041387856915492007-03-29T12:14:00.000+08:002007-03-29T12:14:00.000+08:00Maxforce,Wahh ... many interesting comments ... Th...Maxforce,<BR/><BR/>Wahh ... many interesting comments ... Thanks.<BR/><BR/>On intrinsic value, there are many interpretations, and so, you're not wrong when you say it looks subjective to you. Personally, my interpretation of Intrinsic Value(and others can be different) is how much would I be willing to pay for HEXZA if I want to own HEXZA's business in its entirity (assets, liabilities, management, staff, brand, etc.) without any fundamental changes to its business (i.e. with existing management running the business as if there is no change)? (This ties in more with Graham and Buffett's way of thinking) Government bonds are currently yielding less than 4% p.a., HEXZA is a business with more volatile returns, my absolute minimum return expectation would be at least 12% p.a., giving myself a safety margin of 8% (=12% - 4%). A return of 12% is equivalent to a P/E of 8. Others might be stricter - they might demand a minimum return of 15% p.a., or a P/E of 6.7. Conversely others might demand less, as HEXZA earnings are growing - e.g. P/E of 10-12, or maybe even more. That's where I derived my intrinsic value range of $1 to $1.50. Given its NTA is already $1.2x, it's probably close enough, even though I know it is precisely wrong (but approximately right, as Buffett would like to say).<BR/><BR/>You are right - I am hoping with this and other fundamental blogs that when there are more people starting to think more about how undemanding HEXZA business valuation is (3.3 times less cash), they would slowly change the way they look at HEXZA's business. Hopefully, this will change the supply/demand dynamics in the future, and hopefully, it will get reflected in the price charts. But I realize these at the end of the day can be only "hopes", and a safer, more predictable approach would be to wait for confirmation.<BR/><BR/>I like your TA approach to pay a bit more on breakouts and to sell a bit earlier on approaching peaks - it minimizes the time the funds are tied into stocks, giving higher annualized returns. My only reservation is that I think I am not skillful enough yet to capitalize on trading - e.g. my buy on HEXZA at $0.67 yesterday is probably regarded by TA as less than 50/50, even though on FA terms, it is extremely compelling. That's why I only trade a minority of my holdings.<BR/>Hopefully, I will get better at it over time! :-)<BR/><BR/>Thanks again for your interesting comments.Senghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08265958046623158053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-52551336249352706192007-03-29T11:38:00.000+08:002007-03-29T11:38:00.000+08:00Hi Seng,Must be great to be able to retired and pl...Hi Seng,<BR/>Must be great to be able to retired and play stock all day, right? ^_^Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13884248834932278255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-61147145487765494532007-03-29T11:31:00.000+08:002007-03-29T11:31:00.000+08:00Hi Tan,During the correction, I did buy more LIOND...Hi Tan,<BR/><BR/>During the correction, I did buy more LIONDIV at $5.95, which is more than I needed to hold ... At $7.20/25, that's a nice gain in less than a month, so, I let that one go and swapped into AMANMFB, mainly to protect my downside, and AMANMFB has the potential for a quick upside gain (although with less certainty). I still hold most of my LIONDIV, and intend to add back on weaknesses ... For my larger holdings, my trading tend to be relatively smaller (say 5% to 50% depending on my confidence), and my LIONDIV trading is less than 20%.<BR/><BR/>I would apply a similar trading principle to other sound fundamental stocks as well ... I wouldn't sell the majority (as I am long-term bullish in those stocks), but when stock prices do something irrational in the short term, I hope to be able to take advantage of it, and so, I hope to beat a Buy & Hold investor. If I turned out to be wrong, I still have the majority of the stock riding the uptrend. I can do this much activity because I'm retired :-)Senghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08265958046623158053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-36063079866086672842007-03-29T11:22:00.000+08:002007-03-29T11:22:00.000+08:00Hi sciencegto,Thanks for dropping by. I'm glad you...Hi sciencegto,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for dropping by. I'm glad you've decided to take a first step towards stock investing. Unfortunately, I can't comment too much about SANBUMI as I don't currently own the stock.<BR/><BR/>Good luck!Senghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08265958046623158053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-50586422323737818952007-03-29T11:04:00.000+08:002007-03-29T11:04:00.000+08:00Seng, For me, FA tells me why should I buy this pa...Seng, <BR/>For me, FA tells me why should I buy this particular share. TA will tell me when. <BR/>I do not see the value of intrinsic value, frankly, as I find it too subjective, cannot be reliably quantified and is more of a self fulfilling prophecy. <BR/>As a matter of fact, I wrote an article about that in my blog.<BR/>Ultimately the market is about supply and demand. Therefore, I find TA the better way to do it. Imagine this, you have invented a product. Superb technology breakthrough that the world has never seen. Experts value your product at 1 million a pc. But there is no demand for it. Say demand came later at 500K a pc. Would the valuation be better using the demand or the valuation by experts?<BR/>FA centred using intrinsic value is a contrarian approach. Markets are illogical and always wrong. <BR/>TA centred approach would be inclined to agree with the market. The market is always right. Imagine a truck coming from the wrong way of the street, it would be suicidal to stand in the way - adaptation from Jesse Livermore. <BR/>TA has many approaches to trading/investing. Personally, I prefer to see breakout. Ride on the first wave of the trend and try to get out and the first sign of the end of the trend. Ideally I would buy at higher price (from breakout) and sell at lower price (start of distribution). <BR/>Sometimes, I would even anticipate breakouts. Suicidal for beginners as it cost me some tuition fees previously but now, I find I could quite reliably foreesee if a stock is likely to have the breakout. Also TA based.<BR/>Your analysis is superb! The way I would use it is diversification. Some of my portfolios are purely trading, some longer term investing. I cannot afford to monitor too many stocks, unfortunately. Therefore, for Hexza, I will buy in weakness and keep it. How I will bargain hunt will depend on the charts.Trader Maxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16470236813764490432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-68054696805253448002007-03-29T10:47:00.000+08:002007-03-29T10:47:00.000+08:00Hi maxforce.Thanks for your kind and valuable comm...Hi maxforce.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for your kind and valuable comments. <BR/><BR/>I took a closer/shorter-term look at HEXZA's price chart, and from TA perspective, I must agree with your comment on the $0.66-0.68 resistance.<BR/><BR/>I observed that on Dec 1, it failed to break $0.66 on its first attempt. On Jan 12 (during the start of the bull run), it succeeded, and went on to scale greater heights ($0.74-$0.79) relatively easily. On Mar 1 (during the correction), it fell through $0.66-$0.68 support. On Mar 8, that support appeared to have become a resistance again. <BR/><BR/>Just curious Maxforce. As a more seasoned TA practitioner, would you personally buy, hold or sell HEXZA and why. More importantly, do you think that my article has influenced your buy/hold/sell decision? My personal suspicion is that TA practioners would normally wait until more of the TA indicators confirms a Buy, but I'm just guessing ... <BR/><BR/>Anyway, thanks for sharing your comment.Senghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08265958046623158053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-81075592781383043192007-03-29T08:55:00.000+08:002007-03-29T08:55:00.000+08:00Hi Seng,Why you dispose Liondiv? I though you very...Hi Seng,<BR/>Why you dispose Liondiv? I though you very bullish about Parkson?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13884248834932278255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-53990053802256336942007-03-28T22:35:00.000+08:002007-03-28T22:35:00.000+08:00Actually my first stock now is Sanbumi..I just bou...Actually my first stock now is Sanbumi..I just bought it at 0.86 last Monday. But just 1,000 units only. hehe.. Just try and study slowly. I know this stock is speculative but when I see the chart at February its price can go more than rm1.50-rm1.80 and i thinks its is cheap now. I'm still learning how to value the stock because I'm start from zero. <BR/>(sorry for my bad english)halimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12531274072775996568noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-14433292868712492882007-03-28T22:23:00.000+08:002007-03-28T22:23:00.000+08:00Thanks a lot. This blog help me to study about the...Thanks a lot. This blog help me to study about the stock and the market. I just newbie, open cds acc last week and still learning about this. Hope you can share all your analysis and I can make it as a guide.halimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12531274072775996568noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-41225790109208977352007-03-28T21:51:00.000+08:002007-03-28T21:51:00.000+08:00Excellent analysis! I must congratulate you on the...Excellent analysis! <BR/>I must congratulate you on the effort and the conservative basis being used in your analysis. <BR/>Zonal resistance to monitor 0.66-0.69 which may prove a vital breakout if taken successfully.Trader Maxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16470236813764490432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-87815631313261596052007-03-28T21:36:00.000+08:002007-03-28T21:36:00.000+08:00frenzy,Sorry to hear that. I would love to own HE...frenzy,<BR/><BR/>Sorry to hear that. I would love to own HEXZA at $0.55 - unfortunately, the stock only came into my attention end of last year.<BR/><BR/>My experience with HEXZA is also quite dissappointing. I first owned a small piece of it at around $0.65 and picked up more as the price falls. Normally, I'm not confident in averaging down, unless I am confident that the stock has very sound fundamentals, and is not going to go bankrupt. In HEXZA's case, I believe it is a fundamentally sound stock.<BR/><BR/>My regret is that I didn't sell more of HEXZA when its price was trading at around $0.78 recently. Then I could have bring the Ave Cost down to something like $0.50. The TA indicators were clearly screaming SELL in the loudest manner. At that time, I just dismissed TA as a quirk. After the correction, I started to realize that stocks have their own price cycles, and even if you love a stock fundamentally, you can enhance your returns by trading the cycles. TA is not 100% accurate, but good TA practitioners can tilt the odds to their favor. Even a 55% chance of success is enough to make quite a lot of money. <BR/><BR/>In Malaysia, I believe there are very few Buy & Hold stocks. Eg. the likes of PBBANK and PBB are very rare. Even one of my favorite stocks, MAYBULK, is also not a permanent Buy & Hold stock. I believe, there will come a time (hopefully in a few years time, or longer), when BDI will tank, and MAYBULK face a downcycle, when, it's best to sell and move on to other stocks with better potential. But that's another story.<BR/><BR/>Anyway, all the best in your future investing. Thanks for sharing your experience.Senghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08265958046623158053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-23725965778459192222007-03-28T21:24:00.000+08:002007-03-28T21:24:00.000+08:00Hi greenbull,Thanks for your kind comments. I don...Hi greenbull,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for your kind comments. <BR/><BR/>I don't normally like to mention my Top 10 best performing stocks. This is because what worked best in the past might not necessarily do as well in the future. Especially for a value investor where the past winners might be fully valued by now, whereas tomorrow's winners are yet to be recognized fairly today.<BR/><BR/>Nevertheless, as you requested, in % terms, my Top 10 best performing stocks to date are<BR/>1. Mahsing (*** Buy $1.41)<BR/>2. ICP (*** Buy $1.21-$1.50)<BR/>3. Eksons (Ave cost $0.583)<BR/>4. Maxis-CA (Ave cost $2.05)<BR/>5. Maybulk (Ave cost $2.3)<BR/>6. Rohas (Ave cost $1.05)<BR/>7. Plenitu (Ave cost $1.26)<BR/>8. Liondiv (Ave cost $4.6)<BR/>9. PPB (Ave cost $4)<BR/>10. BKoon (Ave cost $0.69).<BR/><BR/>Those marked with *** means that I still own them, except I have more than fully recouped my cost. "Ave cost" can be reduced than original cost if I sell at a higher price. Dividends does not reduce Ave cost, so, my actual cost can be lower than above. I expect to continue trading these stocks, so, over time, the ave cost will change.<BR/><BR/>How about yourself? What stocks do you like best at the moment? (Do let me know, and if I think they are interesting, I might analyze them further).<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/>Seng.Senghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08265958046623158053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-40735935798362192452007-03-28T20:18:00.000+08:002007-03-28T20:18:00.000+08:00seng.I used to own HEXZA at $0.71 back in 2000. Th...seng.<BR/><BR/>I used to own HEXZA at $0.71 back in 2000. This company do posts decent results but the share price really don't move much. I got tired and sold out at $0.55 last year.<BR/><BR/>If this bull crystalized, I guess HEXZA may trade near to $0.80 level.<BR/><BR/>I think this is for really long term investors. Good luck ! :)billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11046580831847077493noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-935072059836759128.post-29332565125411514562007-03-28T19:12:00.000+08:002007-03-28T19:12:00.000+08:00Hi Seng,Thank you for your blog. I've been followi...Hi Seng,<BR/>Thank you for your blog. I've been following your writings regularly thru' investssmart blog. I hope you will post more so that more people can benefit. I know you own more than 70 stocks in your portfolio. Can you tell me what are your 10 best performing stocks todate?greenbullhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06631907582019338409noreply@blogger.com