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Showing posts with label Miscellaneous. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Miscellaneous. Show all posts

Friday, June 6, 2008

$56 Billion "Subsidy" : A Personal Comparison with KLCI

To justify its fuel hike, we've been hearing from the government in many places especially the Mass Media that the "subsidy" is $56 billion.

For example, this "factbox" by the Straits Times repeated the $56 Billion figure, when comparing Malaysia against other nations. http://www.straitstimes.com/Latest%2BNews/Asia/BgSty_244353_1.html

It is not my intention to list out exhaustively every single mass media source that quotes the $56 Billion figure. Even my previous article has links that mentioned that as well.

It's been mentioned so many times in the Mass Media, and yet Not Questioned, that perhaps some of us has gotten used to it.

We become desensitized to it, because No One questions it.

It just become another number.

So, let me put it in another perspective.

I have used this comparison in the chatbox, and when I did that, some were surprised by how large the number is.

As investors and traders, the KLCI (KL Composite Index) is an Index that we monitor daily and for some throughout the trading day.

The KLCI is an index that comprises of the Top 100 Companies listed in Bursa.

These include names like Sime Darby, IOI Corp, Public Bank, Maybank, HL Bank, Tenaga Nasional, Telekom Malaysia, Genting, Petdag, Petgas, KLK, Digi, Bursa, MAS, Airasia, Astro, BAT, BJ Toto, Gamuda, Maybulk, Kencana, etc. etc. etc.

The List is 100 names long. Yes, ONE HUNDRED. Not 5. Not 10. Not 20. But 100.

If you are using your fingers to count, you need to count it 10 times, since 100 = 10 x 10 and I'm assuming you are a normal person with 10 fingers.

Yesterday, I indicated that the total Market Capitalization for the KLCI is approximately $650 Billion.

Remember that the KLCI includes companies owned by our Country's Richest. Robert Kuok, Ananda K, IOICorp's Lee, Public Bank's Teh Hong Piau, Quek Leng Chan, YTL's Yeoh, Syed Mokhtar, Vincent Tan, Mahathir's son, etc. etc. etc.

The KLCI traded at a P/E of approximately 12 (at around 1260).

This indicate that the Total Net Earnings of all the entire KLCI components - i.e the Sum of All Top 100 Companies listed in Bursa - is equal to : $650 / 12 = $54 Billion per annum.

Err ... What??

Only $54 Billion?

The Top 100 Company listed in Malaysia has a total Net Earnings of less than the $56 Billion per annum subsidy figure?

Is Seng on drugs?

And the government wants to take ALL that away?

And in my previous article, "generously" gives back $5.6 Billion as Rebates. And as the government announces more "benefits", the amounts become smaller and smaller and soon, becomes smaller than $0.1 Billion?

Will they ever add up to close to $56 Billion?

And I don't see our mass media reporting that Rakyat has requested and demanded more Rebates and better Benefits than the paltry $625 for those who owns an "eligible" car.

And I don't see our mass media demanding our Ministers to also do something for those who don't own "eligible" cars / motorcycles, but will surely be very badly affected by the rising prices of goods and services that is certain to happen.

Have we really become desensitized to the size of the figures involved?

Think about how much the government is taking away.

Think about how much they are giving it back.

I am not telling you what to do. I am merely giving you the facts about the total yearly earnings of the Top 100 companies in Malaysia.

I am merely comparing that number with the $56 Billon reported.

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Petrol Up 78 More Sen!

By now, you may have already heard that Petrol and Diesel will be increased at Midnight tonight.
- Petrol will be $2.70 / litre, up 78 sen from $1.92 currently (for ULG97).
- ULG92 will rise 74 sen (from $1.88 to $2.62).
- Diesel will rise by a whopping $1.00 (from $1.58 to $2.58).
This was announced by the Prime Minister in the mass media here (NST Online - http://www.nst.com.my/Current_News/NST/Wednesday/Frontpage/20080604171620/Article/index_html, Star Online - http://www.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/6/4/nation/20080604175025&sec=nation).

Despite the substantial price rise, PM reiterates that petrol is still being subsidized. According to the Star here (http://www.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/6/5/nation/21461533&sec=nation), "Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said the new prices were still at a 30-sen per litre discount from market prices." This implies a "market price" of $3.00 per litre, at least at the time that PM made the announcement. The PM also announces prices to be adjusted monthly.

As a result of the "reduced subsidy", the government proposes to offer rebates to motorists (see http://themalaysianinsider.com/mni/78-sen-more-for-petrol-by-august.html). The proposed rebates are:
- Vehicles below 2,000 cc will receive a rebate of $625 per annum.
- Motorcycles will receive $120 per annum.
- These rebates will be rebated via postal orders.

Subsequently, someone attached in my chatbox the official Press Statement by the PM Office here (http://www.pmo.gov.my/website/webdbase.nsf/w_4?openForm&title=Latest%20Releases%20from%20Prime%20Minister&url=http://www.pmo.gov.my/WebNotesApp/Abdullah.nsf/hv_PMKiniSemasaNew/214AA70091D7F2534825745E003CA153)
The rules are more detailed. The motorcycle rebate for under 250cc is $150 p.a., and for those over 250cc is $50 p.a. or less depending on their road tax. I'm sure more details and clarification will emerge in future.

In addition to the Small vehicle & Motorcycle rebates above, according to DJ Malaysia (courtesy of fellow chatter "juicy" in my chatbox) and the Official Press Statement:
- PM: Road Tax will be reduced.
- PM: Power Tariffs Up 26% for Commercial Users
- PM: 30% Levy on Power Producers
- PM: 15% Levy on CPO above RM 2000 / ton
- PM: CPO Levy for Sabah/Sarawak at 5%
- Gas Prices raised substantially (e.g. Electricity Sector, from $6.40/mmBtu to $14.31/mmBtu, etc.)

In both the mass media, as well, as the Official Press Statement, the PM announces that "Govt to Get RM13.7 Bn Savings from all these Measures."

Further, according to Shahrir (e.g. Malaysian Insider above): "A new scheme ... had to be considered due to the escalating subsidy bill likely to top RM56 billion if world crude prices don't pull back from the current level of around US$130 a barrel. "

Further Shahrir (in Malaysian Insider): "The new subsidy scheme will save the government RM4 billion, said Shahrir."

______________

Now, my main point in this article is to try to approximately estimate (to the nearest 2 significant number):
1. How much Government has taken away (from these various measures in Red above).
2. How much the Government proposes to give back (from various measures in Blue above)
3. How much is actually the savings from 1. and 2.
4. And how it compares with what the PM reported to have said, which is RM 13.7 Billion and what Shahrir reportedly say is RM4 billion.

The approach taken here is similar to what analysts typically do in their Fundamental Analysis of companies, based on company published results. In this case, instead of companies, we apply it to the Government, based on what the Government has told us publicly.

So, for transparency, I will lay out my assumptions, and you can verify for yourself and see if you agree with my conclusions or not.

1. How Much Government has Taken Away

Firstly, note from above that this includes 2 types of items - those highlighted in Red, and those highlighted in Purple. For this article, I will just attempt to do a 2 significant figure estimate of the Red stuff only. I will ignore the Purple stuff in this article.

Well, according to Shahrir, the total Subsidy per annum is $56 Billion (which relates to the Red stuff only).

By raising Petrol from $1.92 to $2.70, government subsidy should reduce. The question is how much?

Well, we can roughly estimate this since we know that the $56 Billion subsidy relates to a market price of $3 per litre.

So:
- $1.92 to $2.70 : (2.70 - 1.92) / (3 - 1.92) x 56 = $40 Billion.
- $2.70 to $4.00: (3 - 2.7) / (3 - 1.92) x 56 = $16 Billion.
Total = $40B + $16B = $56 Billion.

In short, by raising petrol from $1.92 to $2.70, the gross savings is approx $40 Billion (gross = before deducting the blue items & expenses), with the government continuing to subsidize $16 Billion.

Note also that the $40 Billion figure is an under-estimation for the following reasons:

- The price rise in Diesel is much higher than Petrol, so, this should save the government more.
- I have not factored in the savings resulting from the other measures in Purple. These Purple items are not small items, but for the purpose of this article is not necessary to show that the Government numbers don't add up.

2. Cost of Rebates

Fellow chatter "starter" has sent to me the following statistics from the Road Transport Department on the number of cars & motorcycles in Malaysia.
- Number of cars = 7,386,134.
- Number of motorcycles = 7,942,707
- Total vehicles = 16,758,311 (which is larger than both above. Difference = 1.4 million vehicles)
Note that number of cars includes above and below 2000 cc. Number of motorcycles include above and below 250cc. But for conservatism, I have used all to over-estimate and be generous in the Total Rebate figure to be nice to the government.

So, Estimated Gross Rebate = 7.4 million x $625 + 7.9 million x $120 = $5.6 Billion.

Note that this number $5.6 Billion is relatively insensitive to changes in the exact number of motorcars and motorcycles. Feel free to change the numbers yourself. The reason it is insensitive is because the numbers $625 and $120 is small.

2a. Expenses

Since this rebate is via postal order and is done once a year for each individual when they renew their Road Tax, there will be some expenses incurred in doing so for the 15.3 million transactions.

Some of these expenses will relate to the need to maintain records, to make sure the right money goes to the right person, salaries, overheads, and everything which POS bill to the government, etc. etc. etc.

For simplicity, I am assuming that the cost per transaction is $20, from the start to finish.

I feel this is being very, very generous to the government, since bank transactions are typical just a tiny fraction of $20 per transaction, and we are dealing with very large volume of transactions conducted by POS (which should have the best economy of scale, although I'm realistic to know that POS might not be as efficient as banks).

So, a very generous estimate is $20 x (7.4 + 7.9)M = $306M

So, Total Rebate + Expenses = $5.6B + $0.3B = $5.9 Billion.

3. How Much Government Save?

Net Savings = 1 - 2 = 40B - 5.9B = 34 Billion

4. How Compare to What Shahrir Say?

Let me quote him again from Malaysian Insider - "The new subsidy scheme will save the government RM4 billion, said Shahrir."

Err $4 Billion Only???

How did he get $4 Billion?

I got $34 Billion. (from 3. above).

That's a difference of $34 Billion - $4 Billion = $30 Billion unexplained.

$30 Billion pergi mana??

5. How compare to what PM say

Let me quote the PM from his Official Press Statement: "Kerajaan menganggarkan sejumlah RM13.7 bilion daripada penjimatan yang akan diperolehi daripada penstrukturan semula subsidi petrol, diesel dan gas serta pendapatan daripada levi yang dikenakan terhadap IPP dan POP."

Note. He has not only included the Red Stuff but also the Purple Stuff.

Yes, in the Official Press Statements, there are other Costs.

These other Costs - in my judgement - is very small in comparison to the Purple Stuff.

But just looking at the Red stuff, already I get $34 Billion.

And PM's figure is $13.7 Billion.

Difference = $34 Bn - $13.7 Bn = $20 Billion

So, how?

$20 Billion pergi mana??

Why did the PM says the savings is so small, when simple estimations of the big ticket items show that there should be much larger savings to be had?

What possible motive could the government have to mention that the savings is so small?

Update: In this afternoon's discussion in my chatbox, "dorraidd" suggests that maybe, the figures relates to different time-periods. For example, the fuel hike starts from 5 June 2008. Whereas the Rebates is actually given out only from 1 July 2008 onwards. For this year, 1 April 2008 - 31 Dec 2008 period are eligible for rebates. "dorraidd" arguments is that since there are differing time period, there are simply "too many" assumptions that needs to be made.

My response is that in this specific case where the differences are already large and sticks out like a HUGE sore thumb, this is red herring:

1. Compare with Shahrir's number, he says $4 Billion, I get $34 Billion with $30 Billion difference. Can a few months time period gives such a large difference? Let's be generous and double Shahrir's $4 Billion number. You get $8 Billion. Still Big Difference.

Bottom line - to justify $4 Billion, Shahrir must address my article. He needs to make more data more transparent, and explain further.

2. If compare with PM's number, he says $14 Bn, I get $34 Bn, with $20 Billion Difference. Again, gap is too big when there are other Purple stuff benefits which I haven't added into the $20 Billion difference figure. And remember, in my rough estimations, I have been very generous to the government, so, $20 Billion difference could easily be Billions more. But I would like to invite dorraidd to lay out his calculations in a more transparent manner, and do what I do here if he wishes to present his case. It is important that we both are transparent, and not just one of us.

Notwithstanding this, comments are invited in my chatbox or here (if you don't have access to the chatbox, or want to leave a more permanent comment). Thanks.

Disclaimer and Conclusion

1. Don't automatically assume I am correct. Verify this for yourself based on data published by the government. Make sure you understand why and how I derive the differences. It's simple maths that involves basic addition, subtraction, multiplication and division. No calculus involved. But you need to be able to see the "big picture" and the "key concepts".

2. It is quite possible that with further data disclosed in the coming days, with additional benefits announced to the Rakyat, they may run into many Billions of $ and thus reduce the gap. I sincerely hope this happens. But if they did not, then, this is a serious national problem that goes to the highest leadership.

3. And since my main focus is to emphasise the importance of doing independent analysis/checks, and I am not a full time follower of politics, I may not be able to update my article. But I hope I have emphasised the importance of doing independent analysis, because if not, it is too easy for others with no sense of integrity or morals to cheat you in other aspects of your life.

Thursday, March 20, 2008

"Help those who needed help more than me" - Chan Kok Fei

I was browsing the news and came across this case which touched me deeply (full link here - http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/3/20/nation/20674124&sec=nation) :

"JOHOR BARU: STPM top scorer Chan Kok Fei has been swamped with offers from generous donors who want to help him study medicine, but the single-minded teenager is determined to put his family’s needs above his own. ...

Despite all the offers of help, Kok Fei wrote a letter to The Star thanking the readers while maintaining that he would still pursue his original mission. ...

He said he would continue to give tuition in Kuala Lumpur during the week to support his family and finance his part-time classes for a Business Administration degree in Singapore....

Even though I won’t be doing medicine, business is my second choice. I can also help my family and the people around me in a shorter time,” he said, adding that that was his priority. ...

Kok Fei, the oldest of three siblings ...

He explained that his family needed the money as his father worked as a hawker, earning RM1,000 a month, while his mother could no longer work after a fall several years ago which caused blood clots in her brain. ...

“She was supposed to go for surgery, but we don’t have money for the treatment. ...

“I want to start contributing financially to my family because my father is also suffering from heart problems,” ...

Chan also said that he was fine with his decision and that he was convinced that the changes he could bring upon his family were far more worthy than achieving his dream of becoming a doctor....

He also urged all those who planned to help him to extend their assistance to others who needed help more than him. ..."

_________


My Comment:

- I have no words to express how deeply touched and how hugely impressed I am with this young man.

- If someone like him cannot obtain or does not receive financial assistance from either the State or National government, then, one must wonder if something is deeply rotten to the core with our government when we have scandals like the Port Klang Free Zone to the tune of RM$4.6 billion, the rampant wastages from Malaysia's space programs, the thousand Ringgit screwdriver set, etc., etc. etc... I pray the right thing will be done for this young man, and hope that he does not dwell on how much corruption and wastages our country has done in recent decades, and how a fraction of that wastage could have been used to the betterment of this country.

- He may be just 19 years old, but if all our newly confirmed MPs just have a fraction of this young man's sense of sincerity, sacrifice, fairness, compassion and love for his family and others poorer than him, and extend that to look after Rakyat's best interests, then, I have no doubt Malaysia would be a completely different country.

There may be no direct investing lessons here today, but maybe ... just maybe ... there may be a bigger lesson here for all of us to learn about humanity, love, personal sacrifice, and compassion for others.

Take care.