Fusion Investor Chatbox

This chatbox is for fundamental, technical and related discussions on investing in Bursa Malaysia. Registration is required to join. Please email me at fusion.investor@gmail.com with your preferred name and password and I will inform you when registration is confirmed.

Disclaimer: As usual, you are solely responsible for your trading & investing decisions.

Friday, December 28, 2007

Winds of courage

This evening, I was reviewing the chatbox history and was impressed by Windsurfer's comment.

If you don't know who Windsurfer is, he is a regular chatter I know from the old investssmart chatbox days a year ago but recently went away for a few months until today. I remembered him saying at least 2 interesting things to me: 1. Don't be a psycho Buffett fan (which I agree - critical, independent thinking is far more important than being a fan for successful lifetime investing results), and 2. "Greed is good" (which I also agree and disagree - a complex topic). Whilst our chats have been almost exclusively over the cbox, over the one year I interacted with him, he strikes me as a courageous young individual (e.g. his high Petroch CW holdings as % of his total capital) with a fair integrity. The latter is something I observe to be more likely to be true in registered cboxes, compared to unregistered ones.

And so, when I saw Wind volunteered his comments below, it spoke to me very loudly of Wind's character and I am impressed with this young man.

You may wonder why Wind would want to clarify that he is not "Wind chaser". The background is due to a mysterious individual who called himself "Wind Chaser" (not Wind Surfer). Since both names start with "Wind", I guess readers (especially new readers) could be confused as to who is who, since the real Windsurfer went away for quite a while.

But why the clarification by Windsurfer? Well, "Chaser" asserts that he used to chat in my cbox but has stopped chatting for some unclear reason, and then proceed to personally attack me left, right and centre. An anonymous enquired if he is Windsurfer, and Chaser carefully concealed his identity, leaving readers (including myself) wondering if it was Windsurfer. And I was impressed when I saw Windsurfer volunteered his clarificiation at 12:27 above.

In the 3 entries, I counted around 10 points. My immediate thoughts are in brackets below. There are no real feelings attached
- just calm observations as it's not anything new to me. I have also invited him to chat with me to clarify his thoughts in Sam's blog (it may take some time, as the comment is moderated there). See his 3 entries below, and full details here (although I would advise to exercise one's own judgement when reading the entries here - https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=2900671137131972978&postID=2917137434145745191)

Entry 1 Dec 27, 4:27PM:

Entry 2 - Dec 27, 5:59PM

Entry 3 - Dec 28, 11:21 AM

If you are seeing these for the first time, such comments may seem confusing to you, and you may rightly wonder what this "bugger S" did to Wind Chaser that deserves such a treatment. But to be honest, I've seen these comments spread across the online investment community hundreds if not thousands of times (mostly repeated spams) over the course of the last 5-6 months. From my own perspective, they have no real basis (as someone wise once commented - "I am not afraid of my own shadows"), but I genuinely invite the commentators (and spammers) to come to my cbox to explain to me their basis for such accusations. I noticed that I haven't really addressed them here in my blog, so, it might be worthwhile to write them out here at least once for future reference.

1. "that S bugger know how to talk only". (my immediate thought is to ask Chaser if he has considered looking in the mirror recently.).

2. "the one who make accusations on sam, the thick fellow". (my immediate thought - what accusations? See point 10 also which is similar)

3. "the thick fellow". (my immediate thought - thick what? )

4. "just can't stand S talk" (I guess S is Seng, so, why can't you stand?)

5. "always claimed credit" (please give me an example of when I claimed credit. I find this comment amusing for a variety of reasons)

6. "without any say before hand calls" (should I give before hand calls? This is an interesting topic probably worth discussing further. I would like to mention that with my new investing style since mid this year, I honestly don't know how to give before hand calls in my cbox without altering/affecting the outcome in an adverse manner. Most of the time, I don't even have a split second when competing against other traders in grabbing timing opportunities, let alone give before hand calls. Further, it invites unnecessary competition in both grabbing limited opportunities and executing stop losses. Further, I don't charge fees for my blog nor chatbox. But I do immensely enjoy discussing and sharing principles, thoughts, opinions, with like minded individuals as well as new investors. And I do believe that timing skills is something that one must acquire for oneself.)

7. "once market plunged, he just kept quiet" (perhaps he refers to my losses. Well, I think I've been quite frank in talking about my Ramunia-LA loss, OSKVI loss and other losses in the chatboxes, which is more than what I've heard about Chaser's losses. I also remembered telling the cbox some time ago that I had losses in over 40 different stocks [and winners in over 160+ stocks] then [and the numbers for both are different now.] )

8. "really disgusting" (strong words but is it necessary? do you want me to lie to say I only just dispose instead of disposing a long time ago? I have already stated many times in my blog that you buy, sell, hold at your own risk. As early as mid this year, I mentioned repeatedly that I was transitioning into 5 different portfolios with radical rationalization. I will not hold your hand when it comes to disposing time since this is a free blog and i simply don't even provide that service for a fee.)

9. "the culprit is the one who sour on other people's success" (well said - have you considered looking into the mirror recently?).

10. "i cannot tahan seeing the bugger S accusing Sam of wrong doing" (you need to refresh my memory on this one. the only incident I can think of is when I was chatting with Dali, Maxforce, Random and someone mentioned the idea whether it could be just be the work of one person, and I said I shared the same suspicion too. If I compare that with #1 to 9 above, I wonder who is the accuser and who is the accused?)

So, I would like to invite "Wind Chaser" (as I have invited "others" who made the same, virtually identical, baseless spammed accusations) to explain to me his opinions better in the cbox. I have invited him in Sam's blog (since he might not read this cbox anymore ... right and cows do fly), and hope to see who he is, since I sincerely have no idea who that person might be. I sincerely hope this person - Wind Chaser - is a genuine individual who previously chatted in my cbox and not turn out to be an imposter in Sam's blog.

Kind regards,

PS. Do let me know if my explanations here is still unclear. Better, come and chat with me in my cbox, and I will be happy to explain to you or anyone else my viewpoints. Hopefully, we both will come out wiser as a result of this interaction.

Thursday, December 27, 2007

SINOPEC-C1 Case Study

Hello everyone and good evening!

Firstly, thanks for the many enquiries received. I'm doing well, and have been trading privately, and occasionally browing the cbox and find interesting comments made there. I should add that "tradester" is not me :-)

As I have a few minutes this evening and the cbox seems quiet, I thought I write something a bit different tonight to stimulate discussions there. I would like to share with you my recent actual trading experience with SINOPEC-C1. (Yes, I stopped chatting, but I haven't exactly stopped trading :-) ) I don't think it's a perfect trading experience - I made my share of trading mistakes there. But at the same time, I did a few things right, which contributes to the result. You may find it interesting and instructive to analyze each trade below and perhaps the traders amongst you might find it interesting to discuss what I did right and what I did wrong and can better improve.

For background, SINOPEC-C1 is not my largest trade, nor my largest profit. On both counts, it is smallish / moderately small. Hence I don't mind sharing it here.

Note the following:

1. At the start of Dec, I have zero position on SINOPEC-C1. I have traded SINOPEC-C1 before several times in and out completely. My first entry in Dec is on the 18th.

2. There are 11 transactions in total since Dec 18 to Dec 27.

3. On Dec 26, I exercised 100,000 SINOPEC-C1 shares. Dec 27 closing price in HK is HKD$12.16. Assuming an exchange rate of $2.37 (still not sure what this is exactly), the equivalent price is around 26.67 sen. The order to exercise was given on Dec 26, and you will note some arbitraging trades there.

4. You may notice a few very small trades and a couple of larger trades. You may wonder why the different sizes. (Hint: I personally find that when I execute trades however small, I somehow have a heightened sense for where the market might go, rightly or wrongly - do you have the same feeling?).

5. You may note that SINOPEC-C1 is traditionally regarded as a risky call warrant due to the short expiry date. Are all short-expiry CW risky? What defines risk?

6. Please don't regard this article as a recommendation to buy SINOPEC-C1. This evening, SINOPEC-C1 closed at 27 sen. My unrealized gain is around $18+k, but I could easily dispose this tomorrow morning at 9 AM, or add more position. To be honest, I don't yet know at the time of writing.

Hope to see an interesting and productive discussion tomorrow. I hope there will be a few traders there. Unfortunately for me, I am most likely to be occupied tomorrow, but you might find reviewing the 11 trades above to be insightful. Anyway, I haven't tried this before, so, let's see if you find this useful or not. If not, we'll try something else.

Good night, happy trading, and have a Happy New Year!

Best wishes,

PS. Do feel free to leave a message here and I'll try to respond to that next week if it's productive.

Sunday, December 16, 2007

Temporary absence

Dear Readers and Visitors,

This is just a short note to let you know that I will be away temporarily from the cbox for say a couple of months starting next week.

Something has turned up for me this weekend, sooner than expected. It is not investing related but something very meaningful to me that I would prefer to put more focus on. Also, there are other personal projects that I have not started/spent enough time on. Hence this temporary absence.

When I looked back at 2007 year, I thoroughly enjoy investing and trading. Perhaps worthy to mention is that even if I don't earn a single cent from today onwards, 2007 will already be by far, the best investing year in my life. Looking back, investing has grown to occupy far more than what I had orignally intended at the start of 2007, so, this temporary absence seems timely to reseek balance.

I will still trade but occasional and private. I will miss the cbox. To me, the cbox has been a great learning place, very motivational and very enjoyable place to be. I could spend my time there all day, but it would be counter productive to my new goals …

In case some of you may speculate that my sabbatical has something to do with maximizing returns from a market timing perspective, the latter simply has nothing to do with my temporary absence.

So, do continue to chat in my cbox. Treat this like your own home, a place where you can make new friends, keep old friendship, exchange and explore new investing/trading ideas, a place where you generally find it useful for your own personal investing development.

For your information, the cbox still receives over 1,000+ views a day. There are 200 registered members there, and a few gurus such as Dali, Moolah, Newbie, Bullbear and others ... In fact, the first 2 were recently elevated by mainstream media to "super-star" status :-) So, I trust I won’t be missed that much as I have never blogged full-time, but only sometimes.

I would also like to take this opportunity to thank everyone for their fantastic support and for making this blog so enjoyable for me this year. I truly think everyone there is simply the best, and I wish you all the best in the near future!

Merry Christmas, Happy 2008 New Year and A Happy Chinese 2008 New Year to all of you in advance!