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Wednesday, June 3, 2009

And The Spamming Blogger Strikes Yet Again

This article did not really start out as an article. Originally, I just wanted to leave a comment in Moolah's blog here (http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/2009/06/and-spamming-blogger-strikes-yet-again.html), but seeing how long that comment quickly became, I thought it would be better to write it here instead.


Dear Moo,

Even though I may not be actively trading nor blogging on the Malaysian market this year, your blog is still one of the few blogs I read regularly. Do keep up the good work!

As you know, the "spammer" (who goes under multiple nicks) is very well known by nearly everyone in Malaysian investing blogsphere to "spam" several blogs for a very long time now, for example, if they were to write articles that gives a hint of disagreeing with him, even if this is imaginary on his part. (and I use the word "spam" euphemistically here, as more often than not, they are often a poorly disguised form of public slandering, imaginary allegations and personal attacks).

In my case, he has done it hundreds if not over a thousand times as I indicated in my blog in the past. And when one has been sensatized, one is naturally more “in tune” when the same thing happened to others such as yourself, Dali, etc..

His case is very unique. There is really no one else quite like him over the Net. As I had the personal experience and opportunity to reflect on this, I am no longer surprised, because as human beings, our pains are unique to ourselves, and the result of a prolonged pain can give rise to certain irrational behaviors, and as unique beings, will tend to have their own unique signatures. (e.g. some people has been known to resort to alcohol under duress, whereas others resort to physically abusing wife/kids, others committing even murder / commit suicide under prolonged duress, etc.).

In his case, one signature is his chronic, recurrent, and long lasting spamming, regardless of what others say to him / of him. He simply ignores and continued his spamming.

Another signature is the content of his spams - e.g. the one you just quoted. The contents are typically delusional, imaginative and sometimes bizarre claims. As I mentioned earlier, it sometimes is a poorly disguised form of public slandering and personal attack on imaginary attributes.

For example, if we reflect closer on his last one - “Ha ha sour cow, feel the pain ? did my sifu sam 's achievement get you hurt ? ha ha cool it sour cow cool.”

Observe his signatures:
- Laugh for no apparent reason.
- Childishly, without real provocation, called you names such as "sour"
- Deluding himself of your pain (or is it his imagination of your pain?) instead of the true pain that he himself might be experiencing.
- Irrationally fear that others will forget about Sam's (or self?) achievement (or failure?) and so, acted on the urge to remind you constantly (via repeated spamming) of Sam’s achievement, whether real or imaginary (should one be so fearful of true and genuine achievements that it requires constant reminders?).
- Pathologically and constantly deny emotional responsibility when he asked you to "cool it".
- Repeated and end with childish name calling ("sour cow cool").

And observe the other typical signature – the rinse-repeat method.

The truth is -- even without me identifying it here and regardless of the nick, we all know immediately in our hearts that this is his signature (I am referring to the spammer himself whoever he is).

And when we take a step back, and reflect on the entire behavior from a detached viewpoint, what conclusions can a reasonable person make?

Even though we may not know who he is in real life, we can make some common sense and reasonable deductions. For simplicity, I will refer to the spammer as “he”, and I am quite certain that it is a “he” – I have yet to meet a female who behaves like this in the investment world – we can reflect on this later why is it that only males tend to behave like this but not females (who have a different way to deal with pain).

1. He clearly feels insecure. Insecure enough that he has this uncontrollable urge to attack you without real provocation repeatedly over the years without stopping. His insecurity is not limited to you, but includes others.

2. His clearly fears you. So much so that, he still sees the need to attack on the slightest hint of threat, even if it is not real but his own imagination.

3. He clearly felt a prolonged pain from something which was previously linked to you. He has no real reason to be jealous of you, since you don't publicly trade nor publicly disclose your trade results.

As I have plenty of opportunity to reflect on him in the past, I believe he has personally lost something meaningful or something large and important to him in the past. Whatever it is or whether the loss is real or perceived, is not really that important. What is more important is his own feelings towards that real / perceived loss – to him, it is very real. So much so, that he has to resort to this regularly and over a prolonged period.

4. Whatever it is, he still felt the Pain to this day. He is no longer in control of his Pain. Instead, his Pain controls him and drives him to do what he does, as an automatic reaction. He is like a Pavlov dog who salivates immediately as an automatic response whenever he hears the bell ringing. He is unable to let that Pain go. He still clings tightly to it, but for what beneficial purpose?

5. Sadly, over time, he has developed an intimate relationship with this pain which he still cannot let go even today. Most likely, he is unaware of the need to let that pain go. He is reasonably intelligent, so, I'm sure he has made past attempts to let that Poison go. However, I believe he felt an emptiness when he tried to do this, and so, the emptiness eventually brought him back to spamming you/me/others. It appears my absence in the past few months has seen him channeling his Pain to you and others as alternative outlets. It appears he still cannot let go of this root cause which is the Pain.

6. I believe his experience is not unlike someone who has lost a loved one, and unable to let that person go even though that person has already passed on.

7. Clinically, this happens more common than I originally thought. From society's viewpoint, he needs help, not more criticism. The root cause may relate to his strong attachment to his ego. It doesn’t help when others boost his ego to get tips. It is not dissimilar to giving the drunkard more alcohol to drink.

8. The other (less likely) possibility may be that he is merely doing his “job” when he blogs and spams. When things don't turn the way "it should be", you (or someone else or something else) had to become a convenient excuse, or a diversion. Either way, to cover up his own inadequacies.

9. His regular and chronic use of multiple Net names is indicative of this self-delusion. He doesn't appreciate that he cannot fool everyone all the time. Even the best get caught out when they do it long enough (e.g. Madoff), and in his case, he has been called out more than once. His signature is to ignore and continue.

10. Rationally, he knows it is self-delusion, but because it is a delusional act of perceived self-preservation, we cannot expect him to acknowledge this publicly. Ironically, healing for him would actually require him to reach out to someone in the real world and acknowledge that his past behavior is wrong so that he can heal and move on. But seeing how entrenched his behavior has become, this would be almost impossible for him to do by himself. I believe he will find it easier to heal when he reaches out to someone physically to break out from his habit (e.g. from not using multiple nicks, not publicly slander others on personal basis on the slightest hint of threat, to engage in reason, to be emotionally mature, and other signatures above).

11. As mydreamgetrich has suggested in the past, his chronic behavior is likely linked to isolation, coupled with lack of family/corporate/social/other meaningful network/relationship. He is most likely single, with no intimate / superficial connection/relationship in the real world. It doesn't help that he reinforces this behavior regularly in his blog. It has gotten to a stage where for years, he has not thought twice about lying to others over the Net. It had become habitual and second nature to him long ago. Hence, even if he were to try to stop by himself today, I’m not optimistic that it would be a permanent change, without some form of public acknowledgement or reaching out to a real life person or seeking the help of a medical professional.

12. So, as much as we like him to reflect on this article for his own benefit and hopefully see a permanent change in his behavior, the truth is statistically and from personal experience, it very rarely happens - don't be surprised if we don’t see that happening ... a strong and long lasting momentum like this is not likely to stop immediately and reverse …..

13. Going forward, if/when he spams again, I think the way you handled it (which is to remove it from sight after you've read it) is the correct way ....... there is no emotional benefit for you to hang on to it when it is clearly slanderous ........

And everytime when I receive such "spams", I would pause and reflect on his own pain, what drives him to do this, and reflect on his own inadequacies to find a better channel.

I reflect that since he is unable to deal with whatever that really bothered him, this became his outlet ….

I reflect that it's not dissimilar to an irresponsible father who drinks and come back home to physically abuse his wife/kid when he perceives (whether real or imaginary) that something didn't work out right at work/money/etc.

And then, I proceed to put that slander out of my sight.

14. And how should others respond when the "spammer" strikes again? Here, I think similar steps to 13 applies also. Read it ....... think about it ............ and reflect on the spammer's own pain ........... clearly he is in pain which drives him to do what he does .............. and because of hs own inadequacy, he does what he does and we should reflect on his inadequacy ................

So, in short the best thing that we can do for him as third parties - when he "spams" - is ironically to stay silent.......... Perhaps send a short note or show of support to Moolah .......... Tell Moolah tht you know that it has nothing to do with him ...... Acknowledge that it has nothing to do with us third parties ........... and acknowledge that it has everything to do with the spammer where regardless of what we say, it did not stop the spammer before ............

If the spammer has genuine friends and followers, they should continue to try to advise him to stop.

15. And when we are publicly slandered, we too should first reflect on our own egos – if the slander and allegations are untrue, why did we respond in a way that we later don't feel so good about our initial response? In my case, when I reflected long and deep enough on it – usually it boiled down to our own ego.

We may reason away that every human being usually have a limit that when pushed repeatedly over a long period of time – we simply snapped under duress and when under constant harassment.

But sometimes, we also need to reflect further on why we snap. Ultimately, for me, it comes back to my own attachment to my own ego ...... and I believe it is also true for many. The truth is, we don’t feel good when we’ve been slandered publicly. We fear others may start believing the slander to be true if repeated long enough. But when we fear, it reflects our inadequacies to deal with that fear.

16. And dear "spammer", as I know that you are reading this, my advice is try to let IT go …. Whatever IT is, decide and resolve to let it go ….. and then, let it go ……..

It is really not worth your emotional well being to be clinging on to it for so long …… The longer you cling on to it, the longer and worse the poison becomes.

You should not be too fearful of what others have written ........ whether it is TA vs FA ............ whether it is an article that points out the negative side of a stock .............. much has been debated before about TA vs FA, and much has been debated before about individual stocks good and bad points. All stocks have good and bad points ....... There is no need to resort to public slandering ........ there is no need to be fearful.

As I tried to allude to you long ago when you first wrote to me under a different nick, don’t let the fear (or loss or hatred) poison your heart ….. Don’t become the person you hate to be most ………

For what it is worth ......... in my own heart ........ I have forgiven you for EVERYTHING that you have done a long time ago, and no longer bear any hatred towards you …….

If my advice is worth anything, whatever IT is that you have been clinging on so strongly to your heart, “Let IT go”. It is not worth clinging on to.

Best wishes,


PS. I am only a human being, so, don't take me too seriously too ......... and of course, you are always right ;-)

PS2. I have decided to disengage comment moderation. I am doing so because I trust in the Buddha seed and the goodness in the Spammer's heart. I realize what I said may appear harsh, and perhaps his response to my article would be a way for me to redeem my past karma ..........

Friday, February 27, 2009

Umno Youth angrily mobs Karpal in Parliament

As a Malaysian, this is downright disgusting.

Here I am thinking and wondering why should Malaysian children look up to Malaysian Politicians (particularly those from Barisan Nasional) for moral compass and role model, when they are just samsengs in disguise and in power.

There is simply no need for any political party to mob an MP in Parliament. Just take a look at what transpired, as reported by a pro-government media here. If the pro-government media already paints such disgusting picture, what about hearing from the other side? http://nst.com.my/Current_News/NST/Thursday/Frontpage/20090226161456/index.pda

The drama started when Karpal was confronted by the 22-member group comprising Selangor Umno Youth members as the MP was making his way into the parliament's tower block at 2.45pm.

[Seng: Just imagine - it takes 22 Youth to confront 1 in a wheelchair. Real bravery by UMNO Youth!]

The group had been waiting for Karpal since 1.30pm.

Noticing the veteran politician, the group surrounded the wheelchair-bound Karpal and demanded that he apologise for remarks made against Umno Youth in the House on yesterday.

[Seng: Yes, real "bravery" by UMNO Youth - 22 *jantan* surrounding an elderly guy in a wheel chair and then make demands.]

However, Karpal refused to recant his allegation that the wing had sent bullets in the mail to him recently, as well as using the term “celaka” (damn) to berate the movement.

[Seng: UMNO Youth loyalist might argue that this is provoked by Karpal, but that argument simply doesn't hold water. Karpal uttered the words IN PARLIAMENT. I don't necessarily agree with his phrase celaka, and I can understand why he suspects it is UMNO Youth who sent it, but that's Parliament for you where Politicians on both sides frequently accuses the other side of doing certain things without proof. What is new in Parliament here? And more importantly, why bring this issue OUTSIDE Parliament? As Rakyat, I *jelak* when I see this physical "gangster" behaviour.]

Pakatan Rakyat MPs - Fong Kui Loon (DAP-Bukit Bintang), N. Gobalakrishnan (PKR-Padang Serai) and Lim Lip Eng (DAP-Segambut), who just came back from lunch, went to Karpal’s aid after being informed by parliament staff of the incident.

They claimed they were roughed up by the mob, with their bodies pushed and shoved by several Umno members. "One even pulled my tie. At one point, I nearly fell into the fountain," Lim claimed.

[Seng: When our Police and Parliament Security do not protect MPs in Parliament, this is very, very bad for Rakyat. I pity Ordinary Malaysians who voted for Barisan]

However, the trio manage to wheel Karpal into the House, while the Umno Youth group continued to heckle and shout at them.

Moments later, Liew Chin Tong (DAP-Bukit Bendera) tried to cool down the situation but he was greeted by more shouts."Who are you? Go away," shouted several members of the mob..Karpal's son, Gobind Singh (DAP-Puchong), who sprinted to his father's aid, traded verbal blows with the group.

[Seng: Just imagine this - UMNO Youth members who has NO RIGHT to even be present in Parliamentary buildings, telling and shouting to an MP "Who are you? Go away!". They might as well come to your house and shout at you "Who are you? Go away!" It should be obvious these Youths have no business in Parliament, yet, Who are they to tell the MPs "Who are you? Go away!"! ]

At one point, Gobind and a member of the mob had to be restrained by their respective members to prevent fisticuffs. The situation improved after BN Backbenchers Club (BNBBC) chief Datuk Seri Tiong King Sing appeared and urged the group to disperse. "Please go back and respect the House. We can't have such incidents happening here," he told them.

Gombak Umno Youth chief Megat Zulkarnain Omardin, who was part of the mob, told reporters that they are Umno members “willing to die defending the party.” "He (Karpal) must stop insulting the Rulers and the Malays," he said. “Our patience is running out.”

[Seng: What about willing to die to defend the Ruler and Rakyat? Yes, I hear you loud and clear when it comes to defending the Party, but what about the Ruler and Rakyat?

You see, this is clearly double-standards.

When PM Abdullah challenges the King publicly in early 2008, I don't see anyone sending him nor Najib live bullets. But Karpal got it, and not just once.

When PM Abdullah challenges the King publicly in early 2008, I don't see UMNO Youth storming into the PM's office or stalking Parliament waiting for him and then, ganging up on him to demand he stops using the mass media, the AG, and all other machinaries to influence the King to make Idris Jusof the Terengganu MB and not Ahmad Said. But 22 UMNO Youth members think it is their duty to die for the Party to gang up on elderly, wheel-chair bound Karpal Singh.

Wow. Real jantan.]


It is obvious this is politics of the worst kind.

Khairy of course sees it opportunistic to champion UMNO Youth claims here - http://www.bizedge.com/edge-tv/864-umno-youth-wants-proof-on-karpals-bullet-threat.html

Doesn't matter if he has to unfairly label Karpal as he sees fit. Doesn't matter if he is being unfair to everyone else. The only thing that matter is his own personal image, and that he's seen as championing UMNO Youth. See the youtube and judge for yourself.

1. Khairy demanded that Karpal utters the same words outside Parliament.

(What on earth for? Karpal's behaviour inside Parliament is no different than any other BN politicians, who slander each other every single day they meet. As rakyat, I truly detest this, and I am completely disenchanted with all the slanders and politicking that goes on in Parliament. I definitely DON'T WANT to see this behaviour OUTSIDE Parliament. Of course, I don't want to see it inside parliament too, but that would be impossible due to the nature and character of these MPs in Parliament. Doesn't Khairy realizes our country have greater problems that the government urgently needs to solve?)

2. Khairy demanded that Karpal provides proof within 24 hours, slanders Karpal, blah-blah-blah

In short, I couldn't care less. There's no need for a 3rd Party like Khairy to throw more fuel to the fire. Besides being unfair to Karpal - he's the victim of a serious death threat which I find totally unnecessary - there are other more conciliatory ways to deal with Karpal's accusations that deals with UMNO Youth's name.

If Khairy didn't call for the press conference or UMNO Youth gang up on Karpal physically, I wouldn't even realized Karpal accused UMNO Youth.

At this time of great economic crisis, the country needs both sides to work together productively and efficiently.

It definitely doesn't need Najib to steal Perak to create all this chaos and to use Royalty.

For our future PM, this shows Najib is NOT serious about the Rakyat's welfare, but is clearly MORE interested in securing power - by hook or by crook.

So, going back to my first question - why should parents of young children encourages their kids to use these politicians as role model, when politicians behaves like this both Inside and Outside of Parliament?

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Why can't our MACC be more Independent and more Professional too?

This is complete defiance and total rubbish by the MACC as far as I am concerned - http://m.themalaysianinsider.com/articles.php?id=19095. Despite Mar 2008 GE results, it is clear NOTHING has really changed in Malaysia politics - if anything, things appear to be getting worse. Malaysians really have no choice come the next GE - even if all PR candidates were to be disqualified and they have to put up some monkeys against BN, there should be no contest.

MACC defends public disclosure of Khalid case

By Neville Spykerman

KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 24 — The Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) defended today the public disclosure that there was “strong evidence” of abuse of power against the Selangor Menteri Besar.

MACC deputy commissioner Datuk Abu Kassim said his boss was acting within the law when he made the statement to the media.

Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim is accused of abusing his powers to purchase cattle, which was distributed to mosques to his constituency, and to maintain his personal car.

The disclosure, which has been labeled as selective prosecution by Pakatan Rakyat (PR) was made by MACC chief commissioner Datuk Seri Ahmad Said Hamdan four days ago.

Abu Kassim said the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission Act 2008 provided the powers to Ahmad Said to make the disclosure.

Section 29 (4) states that a report shall be kept secret and shall not be disclosed by any person to any person other than officers of the commission and the public prosecutor until an accused person has been charged in court for an offence under this Act or any other written law in consequence of such report, unless the disclosure is made with the consent of the public prosecutor or an officer of the commission of the rank of Commissioner and above.

“My interpretation of Section 29(4) is that the disclosure was made according to the law.”

When asked by The Malaysian Insider if the law allowed for the MACC chief to express his personal opinion to the press, Abu Hassan said he was not aware that Ahmad Said Hamdan statement was a personal opinion.

However two days ago, Minister in the Prime Minster Department Datuk Seri Mohamed Nazri Abdul Aziz reportedly said (in The Star) that Ahmad Said Hamdan was only giving his point of view when he told the press they had sufficient evidence against Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim and added that the Attorney-General’s Chambers will decide whether to press charges.

Meanwhile Abu Kassim said only new corruption cases will follow under the MACC Act, which came into effect this year.

Under the new procedures the outcome of all investigation will be forwarded both to the Anti-Corruption Advisory Board, which is made up of esteemed members of the public, and the Attorney-General's Chambers.

“All cases which are closed will have to be tabled before the advisory board, who represent the public and we hope this will put a stop to allegations of bias.”

However he said previous corruption cases which occurred before the MACC Act came into force will be investigated according to old Anti-Corruption Agency (ACA) procedures.

The MACC was officially launched by Prime Minster Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, at the Putra World Trade Centre, this morning.

During the launch Abdullah said he was confident the restructuring of the previous anti graft agency which had evolved into the MACC, would increase its effectiveness.

The MACC is modeled after some of the best anti-corruption agencies in the world such as the Independent Commission on Anti-Corruption (ICAC) Hong Kong and the Independent Commission Against Corruption in New South Wales, Australia.”



1. I am dissappointed that the press still doesn't ask the right nor critical questions.

The right and critical approach is to first appreciate that Section 29(4) contains 2 approaches - the "Normal" approach and the "Special" approach. This is very clear from above that the "Normal" approach is for MACC to NOT disclose and to proceed charging in Court, whereas the "Special" approach is to do what MACC Commissioner did.

So, it is important to appreciate that MACC have a choice in deciding which approach.

And so, for Rakyat to have greater confidence in MACC's professionalism and independence, it is critical for Rakyat to understand under what circumstances and under what "principles" are the "Normal" approach not used, and the Exceptional approach used.

So, is this because Khalid is an MB, and an MB is deemed to be very important?

If so, will MACC then apply consistent standards to all MBs in the States, including highr ranking officers such as the PM, DPM, etc.?

If not, then, what is the criteria? Is the criteria because Khalid is a Pakatan MB, and this exception only applies to Pakatan States?

What is the conceptual principle that decides when the Special clauses are invoked, and when the Normal approach is used?

Suka suka invoke the Special Clauses?

Is this the primary purpose of Parliament in drafting laws? Is it to give certain people God-like powers where suka-suka, they invoke?

2. I have lived in both Australia and Hong Kong for over 7 years, and never once have I seen the NSW and HK Commissioners expressing their personal opinion in the same manner as Ahmad Said did 4 days ago against Selangor MB.

3. Technically, I do not deny that just looking at Section 29(4), the Law appears to have given GOD-LIKE powers to the Commissioner to say ANYTHING he likes to the press.

Four days ago, Ahmad Said exercised his God-Like power.

MAYBE, it's within the letter of the law, but does it follow the spirit of the law? Does it make it RIGHT?


And after this episode, do you perceive MACC to be independent now?

4. As I understand it, it involves Khalid using his own personal car for State use and thus require maintenance to be done by the State. He also directed State Funds to the tune of $100k to sembelih cows for a Rakyat's consumption for a once a year celebration.

Let me ask this simple question - who benefitted from Khalid's so called "abuse of power"?

He used his own car for State business - doesn't this already save the State some money?

The cows are not even for his own personal consumption! - I mean - how much beef can a person eat ???

Is this really so serious that the MACC Commissioner must urgently invoke the God-like Section 29(4) to make an exception to disclose to all Malaysians that Khalid is guilty when he is not even charged yet?

Don't get me wrong -- I'm not suggesting Khalid be let of. Far from it. Continue to investigate Khalid or any MB suspected of corruption. But, if I were running MACC, I would PRIORITIZE. If it has BIG $$$, then, I would want to be closely involved. If it has SMALL $$$, then, maybe this is something one could delegate for staff development, and can afford the normal channels.

And the audacity to declare that the MACC is modelled after the HK and Australia's Commisions ...

This is not even accurate, and by any imagination, stretches the truth by a long mile. MAYBE Malaysia might have borrowed a few parts here and there in writing the MACC legislation, but to imply it is on par with HK and NSW is utterly and completely MISLEADING and IRRELEVANT. I wouldn't even print that if I was the editor.

Anyone who has lived overseas long enough in either HK or Australia will immediately recognize the HUGE differences in this type of cases, between HK/Australia and Malaysia's MACC!

5. Doesn't the MACC have more serious corruption cases to pursue? Ones that involves hundreds of millions of $$$ if not Billions of $$$ of taxpayer's monies like the Port Klang Free Zone, the $500 Million+ Submarine maintainance contract, etc?

Why not use Section 29(4) exception against really serious alleged crimes that apparently involves the future Prime Minister?

Is corruption in Malaysia seriously limited to one car and a few cows?

What is happening to the Auditor General's reports on corruptions that are far larger than a Car and a few Cows?

Sadly, I don't see an end to this.

The only chance Malaysians now have to reclaim their country is through the next GE.

Even then, it is not clear if it will stop the rot.

Why can't our Police be more Independent and more Professional?

In the scheme of things and all the abuses that the Police are accused of being guilty of, this particular case appears minor. But looks can be deceiving. It speaks volumes of the lack of independence and the lack of professionalism of Malaysian Police force.

The article here - http://m.themalaysianinsider.com/articles.php?id=19109


Bar slams police for questioning Perak Speaker

By Debra Chong

KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 24 – The Malaysian Bar Council has denounced the interrogation of the Perak state assembly speaker by the police.

Its president Datuk Ambiga Sreenevasan said yesterday's police questioning was “ill-advised” and “violates the doctrine of the separation of powers in the legislative assemblies”.

“It’s setting a dangerous precedent because the Speaker cannot be interfered with,” she told The Malaysian Insider today.

“He enjoys certain privileges and immunities under the Federal Constitution and certain enactments in Perak,” she added.

Ambiga explained that the implications of the police’s action is very dire, even if the questioning appears to be a routine procedure.

“Once it starts, no legislative assembly is safe anymore. No speaker will have the freedom to carry out his functions and duties as speaker if he is subjected to questioning by outside forces,” she said, noting that V. Sivakumar was called in for questioning in his official capacity.

“Unless respect is given for certain basic, core principles, if anything goes, it will not promote the rule of law,” Ambiga concluded.


Comment: The concept of democracy, the concept of separation of powers, the concept of Parliamentary immunity and privileges are very clear in a true democracy. The Police have every right to question V Sivakumar in relation to say a murder investigation, or a robbery investigation, or any other criminal investigation, but they have ABSOLUTELY NO RIGHT to question V. Sivakumar in relation to his performance as the Speaker in Perak State Assembly. V. Sivakumar does NOT report to the Police, the Police simply has no jurisdiction in this area!

The obvious question is why does the Police do this? Why waste public funds and resources to question V. Sivakumar in relation to his role as the State Assembly Speaker? Why not go after the REAL criminals and solve real crimes?

Who directed the Police to do this?

Why intimidate the Speaker in this way?

Imagine if you are a businessman. Imagine one day, a gang of 100+ summoned you to visit their office for questioning. They did not send 100+ people, but just a couple, but you know they belong to a gang of 100+. They question you on your business. Wouldn't your first question be why are you questioning my business when it has nothing to do with you and I have not broken any law? The analogy is very similar to what's happening to V. Sivakumar!

Is our Police Force simply unaware that they need to be independent of politics?

This may seem like a minor issue - and those in Power wants you to think it's a minor issue - but when Rakyat continues to NOT stand up to defend the role of the Speaker, then, don't act surprised later when Malaysia loses its democracy. Every daily act like this - however small - chips away slowly but surely at our country's democratic system.

Some say, Malaysia has lost her democracy 2 decades ago. How will she regain her democracy, if this type of mentality continues?


Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Some facts, thoughts and statistics on Pre-Marital Sex

This post is inspired by the recent controversy surrounding Ms Elizabeth Wong's resignation, where some strongly commented that it is morally wrong for her to engage in pre-marital sex, and so, she must resign.

My honest personal view is that such comments are full of assumptions and hypocrisy. And hypocritic leaders cause far greater damage to the society than the society care to admit publicly.

And as a parent today and a kid once a long time ago, I know that I disliked being brain-washed. The problems with brain-washing kids is that kids today are a lot smarter than that. They have far greater access to information today than 20 to 30 years ago. They have plenty of time and interest to discuss extensively with their peers, or to be pressured by their peers if they lack information. I believe the best thing that we can do as parents is to pro-actively encourage our kids to discuss the issue with us in a open, non-threatening and approachable manner, so that they can come to an informed view about this matter, before they are peer pressured. In reality, parents have no choice anyway -- all kids eventually grow to become adults, and the best thing that parents can do is to try to ensure that our kids grow up to become independent and responsible adults.

It is with this spirit and intention that I share the following information with you.

1. Pre-marital sex amongst adolescents in Malaysia
The study is reported here in 2006 - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16752015.
Basically, this is a confidential study conducted on 4,500 students aged 12 to 19, in Negeri Sembilan, published in MEDLINE. The full report is also available in the Internet. The results are highly interesting:
* 8.3% of Males students aged 12-19 have had sex before.
* 2.9% of Female students aged 12-19 have had sex before.
* The average age of these group first having sex is ... 15!
* Of these 4,500 students, 20.8% had taken alcohol! 14% smoked cigarettes! 2.5% tried marijuana! 1.2% tried ecstasy pill! etc.
* As much as the society tries to pretend that this doesn't exist, the truth is they do, and an open and honest admission that these practices exist is the FIRST step that the society can take to tackling these issues.
* Also note that the study is on school kids up to the age of 19. Of course, kids can get married late, and there are some who don't get married until they are in their 40s.

2. Trends in premarital sex in the United States, 1954-2003
Link here: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?Db=pubmed&Cmd=ShowDetailView&TermToSearch=17236611&log$=activity. This is from a 2002 survey also reported in MEDLINE, and is a bit dated, but my own view is that it is still representative. The key result is that by age 44, 95% of respondents (94% of women, 96% of men, and 97% of those who had ever had sex) had had premarital sex.
* This should not be surprising.
* Notwithstanding what Christianity teaches that pre-marital is against the Bible's teachings (see here for example - http://www.allaboutworldview.org/premarital-sex.htm), the reality is that the American society engages in pre-marital sex.
* It is best not to be quick to jump into conclusion about anything, but just observe.

3. Premarital Sex in China
Link here: http://www.china.org.cn/english/2003/Oct/76980.htm
* Also a bit dated (Oct 2003).
* The key result here is that the ratio of premarital sex in China varied from region to region, ranging from the lowest 44 percent to the highest 90.75 percent. The bulk of the regions are in the 60 percent to 70 percent bracket.
* This is an incredible study - it analyzes 196 Research Reports conducted from 1990 to 2000.
* If the report is true, this study appears to be the right first step for China in formulating responsible public health policies. You cannot have truly successful policies without accurate data.

4. Malaysia Durex Survey on Teens Pre-marital Sex
* A bit dated, reported in 2003, and the survey probably done at the start of 2003, if not earlier.
* Key findings are 46% of Malaysian teens have pre-marital sex.
* Note that this figure is substantially higher than the Study in 1.
* The Durex study refers to "teens", and does not appear to include those in their 20s, 30s, 40s who also engages in pre-marital sex.
* It is difficult to pre-judge whether the Durex figure of 46% is more or less reliable - my feeling is that this seems to be higher than what I have personally expected (since we are talking about teens who are mostly not yet adult and independent), and the Study in 1. appears to be a little bit on the low side.
* Is 46% figure within your expectation?

So, what are we to make out of these statistics?

The American study showed that 95% of Americans engages in pre-marital sex. The China study shows that pre-marital sex is on the rise, and as early as 1990-2000, the ratio is already around 60%-70% of Chinese, and in some region, as high as over 90%. I have no doubt the figure today for China is rapidly approaching Americans, although my guess is say 80%-85%. The Malaysian Durex study showed that nearly half of our teens are already engaging in pre-marital sex. I have no doubt the true pre-marital sex in Malaysia (including adults in the 20s, 30s, 40s) are higher than 60%-70%, and maybe 80% would be one guess.

In short, there are very strong evidences to indicate that pre-marital sex is definitely the norm rather than the exception. I have no doubt that the majority of Malaysians today engages in pre-marital sex. I have no doubt that the trend is on the rise since the 1970s.

MAYBE we might engage it less than the Americans and the Chinese, but the truth is I'm really not so sure. The reason is because we are human beings, with needs, just like anyone else, and in traditional, closed, hypocritical cultures like Malaysia, more often than not, the under-reporting is usually a more prevalent problem.

But the thing to realize is that Malaysians have a choice. We don't have to choose to continue to be hypocritical. The majority does it, and the key is to be informed and be responsible. No one wants to have more single mothers and unwanted pregnancies in this world. No one wants more sexually transmitted diseases in this world. No one wants to create more emotional wreck amongst teens and young people in this world from irresponsible sexual practices. This is something we can all agree.

But the solution is not to pretend that pre-marital sex does not exist, when it clearly does and the majority engages in it.

The solution is not to create more guilt by bringing in religion and then demanding that we stop engaging in pre-marital sex. This just creates more emotional wrecks and psychopaths if pushed to the limits.

It would be naive for governments and political leaders to think that they can dictate our lives and our freedom of choice, and to dictate our moral values. These are individual human rights. Furthermore, public health policies that relies on closing our eyes and being blind to reality is extremely dangerous, and a complete waste of public funds. More often, corruption and personal gains are the norm.

No doubt it is a complex society issue. But as responsible parents, whilst our first plan is to not want our kids to engage in pre-marital sex, for many parents, not only would that be hypocritical, it would also not work and not be effective. We must remember that eventually, our kids will grow up and as parents, we have a role to play to ensure that they grow up to become a responsible and independent adult. It is futile to try to stop time, and to try to stop this growing up process.

And the truth is -- if I must choose role models for my kids - between Elizabeth Wong, and Khir Toyo/Syed Hamid, there is no doubt who I will choose.

Friday, February 20, 2009

Can you tell the difference?

... between Samgoss and okating? *grin*

His comments are here - http://fusioninvestor.blogspot.com/2009/02/some-thoughts-on-stock-calls.html

My reply to him is also there as well, but I'll reproduce it here just to be clear.

Geeee ....

Why is it that I can't tell the difference between Samgoss and okating's comments?

Are you both twins?


If you don't like my blog, don't read. It's that simple.

When you insist to visit here and keep leaving comments that clearly shows to everyone how silly you are, that's your problem.

Not mine.

Anyway, why do you insist in reading my blog?

Are you financially hurt by my comments that a certain blogger is manipulative?

Is that it?

Or is it because your regulars no longer contribute as much as they did before, and your own pocket is hurting?


If your regulars are buying your stock calls off you, then, GREAT!

No need to act like a child and come here and whine.

Do I, Moolah, Dali, nexttrade, and every other blogger need to go to your blog and whine?


Grow up please!

My thoughts on Elizabeth Wong

Even though I don't live in Selangor, by all accounts, Elizabeth Wong is a great Yang Berkhidmat. Bukit Lanjan was very lucky to have someone like her as their YB.

And thus, the past week has been one hell of a shock! A lot has been written over the Net, thousands have commented, and I am simply aghast by comments made by Toyol, Syed Hamid and of course the numerous goons masquarading as normal people over the Net.

The facts were that the photos were taken without her permission whilst she was sleeping.

The facts were that I couldn't find a single nude photo or video of her in the Net. Personally, the photo I could find is one where it shows her wearing spectacles when she was sleeping -- my immediate thought was whether this is a fake, since one sees many "doctored" photos over the Net, that nothing surprises me anymore. And yet, I did not see anything offensive about Ms Wong at all, which makes me wonder whether there is such a photo, or not let alone a video.

However, I did find tons of videos at youtube - there were dozens with titles like Elizabeth Wong, Bogel, etc., but everyone that I clicked did not show anything offensive of Elizabeth Wong at all. Some were downright misleading, showing pictures of other women in compromising positions, but NOT Elizabeth Wong.

Which made me wonder - was there truly a photo/video, or did the Malay Mail/BN politicians merely claimed to have it in their hands in order to force Ms Wong to resign.

I am also surprised how Ms Wong can be quick to admit that it is her. A seasoned politician would have consulted her lawyers first before admitting. My only explanation is that she is young and green, and she is someone who tells the truth, hence, all the more reason why I feel Malaysians need more people like her, with energy and good character than someone like Toyol.

I am also extremely dissappointed that Elizabeth have had to resign her posts. In my opinion, she has done NOTHING wrong at all. She's clearly the victim, and it is very unfortunate that she had to resign for the party's interest. I can see the political benefit for her resigning (e.g. this should trigger a by-election, and the results of the by-election should send a very strong message at least to Toyol, Syed Hamid and everyone else connected with this gross invasion of privacy and malicious attack), but in a real developed country and society, she really shouldn't have needed to resign.

Let's be frank and ask ourselves - what WRONG did she really did?

Without seeing the photos, I can only ass-u-me what she did which is by most accounts, she slept in a sarong without underwear in her own bedroom, and apparently, there is strong suspicions that it could have been the ex-boyfriend who took some grainy photos of her in a rather compromising position.

If this is true, then, she shouldn't have resigned. The strange thing is the earliest press statement said she will continue to serve the constituency, but later on, one read in the press that she intends to resign, due to various pressures. Sadly, resigning only hand a temporary win to the perperators, and embolden them to continue this type of dirty politics, but I expect by-election should tell them loudly the Rakyat's wishes.

I kept asking myself why is it that Ms Wong needs to resign when she has done nothing wrong.

I scout around the Net, talked to various people, and it seems the strongest reason given is that the society cannot accept a political leader who has nude photos distributed in public domain.

And this has to be amongst the BIGGEST and STUPIDEST thing I have ever heard in my life.

First, I challenge any of the readers here to send me her nude photos, because I sure as hell cannot find one! Everyone that I spoke to haven't seen her nude photos. So, are we to ass-u-me that there are such nude photos?

Second, so what. So, what if there are nude photos of her. She's the victim! It was taken without her permission! It was a GROSS invasion of her privacy! Are our politicians so stupid to think that Rakyat cannot tell the difference? What is to stop BN with its vast riches and access to superior technology to spy on other PR politicians systematically in order to kill their political careers when the time suits them? Imagine offering RM $1 million to capture on picture or videos of PR politicians showering naked in their own bathrooms, or peeing in a public toilet, etc. (Or maybe BN already has a database and are just waiting for the opportune time - test it on the lower rungs first like Ms Wong, and if it works, then, escallate it to more senior ones like DSAI, Lim Kit Siang, Hadi Awang, etc.).

Thirdly, given the quality of our political leaders which starts from Abdullah, Najib and the rest, are we serious in expecting our children to look up to POLITICIANS for moral compass??? Seriously? I would never consider the idea of telling any of my children, nor those of my relatives and friends to use Abdullah, Najib or any of Malaysian's politicians as guidance. Perhaps Ghandi might be an exception, but never Malaysian politicians.

Fourthly, so what if Ms Wong is a single woman who engages in pre-marital sex? (Actually, I seriously wonder how on earth could an apparent claim of nude photos led one to conclude that she engages in pre-marital sex! For example, if this was in the court of law in a Western Country, the judge could NEVER conclude this on the basis of an apparent photo which cannot be produced in court!)

Anyway, so what if she engages in pre-marital sex? The truth is the majority of young Malaysians today engages in pre-marital sex. Ask anyone under the age of 40 who is married, and it is probably very rare for the couple to both be virgins when they get married. My rough guess is maybe only 10%-20%, i.e. the other 80%-90% or the majority are most likely NOT virgins on their wedding night!

If in doubt, do a confidential Merdeka Centre Poll and see if I'm right or not!

And also, not being a virgin at the time of marriage isn't against the law! And this is nothing to be ashamed about, because it is a fact of life!

Some prudish idiots claimed that religion does not promote pre-marital sex, and so, Ms Wong must resign! But the same religion does not condemn such persons indefinitely for life too. For example, talking about Buddhism, if a non-virgin were to go to the Temple and vows to become a monk/nun, the Temple will NOT reject him/her on the basis that he/she isn't a virgin! This is a fact of life. Buddhism does not condemn a person just because you are not a virgin when you get married! Which religion condemns a person to hell just because he/she is not a virgin at the time of marriage???

As for Christianity, well, just look at the Western Christian world and you will see that pre-marital sex is nothing surprising, but well accepted as part of real world. It is as natural as breathing, eating and drinking. Of course, the priest does not encourage it, with good reasons. And when one engages in any sexual activity, one must also respects others around them even in the Western World, but Ms Wong is not guilty of public sexual display. She is the victim, and the nude photos (if this exist) is not her idea nor her willing participation!

For BN / UMNO leaders - even if there's just one or two of them - to condemn Ms Wong and asking for her resignation is PURE and UTTER HYPOCRISY of the highest order! I am not a Muslim, but if this is what they demand because of Islam, then, I am sad to say that PAS is a lot more moderate than UMNO in this regard.

As parents, it is tough to tell our children why Ms Wong has to resign for something that she didn't actively nor intentionally do, but where it is obvious that she is a victim of a very unfortunate circumstance.

How will you explain to your kids? How will our teachers explain to our kids at school?

Another reason often advanced to support why she has to resign is that she was a poor judge of character in choosing her boyfriend.

Firstly, this isn't necessarily related to her work -- there are many leaders and professionals around the world who are divorced, married to psychopaths, etc. and yet are still very capable leaders and professionals. In other words, competency in the job and private life are 2 completely different things. And by all accounts, Ms Wong is a very competent YB.

Second, in which job interviews do employers ask you whether you are still a virgin or not? Did they ask you if you have had an affair before if you are married? If not, why should Ms Wong be asked to resign when she obviously has done nothing wrong in her capacity as a YB? Do anyone naively think Najib or his son does not engage in extra-marital affairs or pre-marital sex?

Thirdly, when one is in love, love does sometimes blind us to the weaknesses of our partners. Only time will open our eyes, and in Ms Wong's case, it appears that time did opened her eyes, and the ex-boyfriend is now rightly an ex-boyfriend. It is not wrong to be human and open ourselves to humanity, if we truly love someone, and Ms Wong's case appears to be a common one amongst lovers, where she trusted her boyfriend then. This is not a serious crime, and trusting our loved ones is one of the many things that makes us true human beings. Until they break our trust.

Are Malaysians not human beings too?

Anyway, this is a good article written by Brian Yap in the Malaysian Insider yesterday - http://mt.m2day.org/2008/content/view/18285/84/

He mentioned about 3 characters - Hishamuddin, Michael Phelps and Obama. The key points are Michael Phelps and Obama both publicly admitted that they both have smoked marijuana before. This to me is probably more serious than Ms Wong's pre-marital sex. But this hasn't stopped Michael Phelps from being one if not the greatest swimmers the world has ever known. Nor has it stopped Obama from being the first Black President of the United States. And who are we - to require a higher standard of Ms Wong - than what the world asks from Michael Phelps and Obama?


Toyol *bang head on wall*
Syed Hamid *bang head on wall*

Needless to say, come next election, I trust we all know what to do ...

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

"The Rumour of My Death have been greatly exagerated" *grin*

I think it might have been Mark Twain who first said it, but the quote has been around for a long time. *smile*

Some of you will know that I've been away from this chatbox over the last couple of months because I have been trading the US markets on an intra-day basis during this time.

I've also been a prolific writer in my Fusion 2 blog, writing about Intra Day trading in the US markets, and US and global markets in general, mainly with lots of tables and charts. They are mostly copy and paste from a variety of sources for my own personal future reference.

I appreciate that as a result of shifting to trading US markets, this chatbox has been quieter in my absence.

Naturally, I do have some regrets, but at the end of the day, I really can't help it, since as it always have been the case since I started blogging, that the chatbox and this blog is always a secondary consideration. I've always viewed blogging and chatting as something fun and enjoyable thing to do, and perhaps, shares my own honest views with the investment community which I hoped may have been beneficial, basically trying to do something worthwhile and interesting whilst trading during Bursa trading hours. However, now that I'm trading the US markets with a completely different time zone, and I also do have other life priorities besides trading, something has to give, and I guess it is this blog by default.

However, not all is lost. Think of it like the old days before I had a chatbox and just a blog of articles. If I do find things of interest to write about, then, I will try to pen it here, although it might not be very frequent. The difference between this blog and Fusion 2 is that this blog is primarily on Trading/Investing in Bursa, whereas the latter is mostly focused on US markets and Day Trading.

My hope is that this place can continue to be a place where everyone will feel free to discuss investment matters in a mutually beneficial and constructive way. To a lot of extent, in my absence, it will become a reflection of the investment community, i.e yourselves. And if it's quiet, then, we all know that we are all generally shy Malaysians *smile*

Anyway, as always, good luck and best wishes in your trading and investing.

Until the next article!


Monday, February 16, 2009

Some Thoughts on Stock Calls

In general, I feel stock calls are over-rated.

There is often too much vested interest to emphasise "what to buy" than "when to buy".

To me, the WHEN is far more important than the What, although both are important. We have all seen the "anomalies" that:
- One can buy a good fundamental stock at the wrong time and lose money.
- One can buy a lousy crappy stock at the right time (usually, for a short time) and make an insane amount of money.
- And then, there is the trader who only trades one stock and lose money, and another trader who trades the same stock and made money.

The vested interest - when viewed over a fresh lens - is surprisingly prevalent.

Nearly everyone in the industry does it. They might do it with different intentions and extent. Some of the intentions are innocent (e.g. they just want to share), some as a service to their readers (e.g. with analysis of pros and cons), and they generally add some value although at a vastly different extent.

But the ones you have to watch out for are the one-sided recommendations that only tells you all the good stuff and none of the bad stuff. We all know that human beings are never perfect, and the same goes for organizations and stocks. Needless to say, the ones that employs manipulative tactics that rejoices in their new BMW, new house, shark fin soup and abalone and have dozens of fake supporters are best not touched even with a 10-foot pole *grin*

The skeptic's view (or is it the Wise View?) is that the only reason someone makes a stock call is because -- they already own the stock, and they want to sell it to YOU at a higher price. *grin*

This statement contains far more truth than you might think. *grin*

There are many types of stock calls. From a Net retailer perspective, you probably have seen
- "independent" professional stock calls like the S&P in Bursa
- "independent" stock broker reports like OSK, etc.
- personal advice from your broker/remisier
- bloggers from a wide range which includes remisiers, ex-analysts, etc.
- various websites and bloggers who explicitly recommend stocks especially during bull runs, but have rightly quieten during bear markets (partly, a reflection that timing or WHEN to buy is far more important than what stock to buy)
- And then, various blogs that shares with you publicly what they do, what stocks they buy, and of course, not to be left out ....
- the very dependent manipulator's stock calls whose primary objective is to make money at your expense (again, bring out the 10 foot pole please ... *grin*)

The best ones I find are the ones that explains his/her reasonings, and lay out the risks for all to see.

The reasonings are important - you want to know why the author thinks that the stock price will go up, the catalysts, the key drivers, and whether this is something important that the Market has mispriced.

The risks are important - you'll want to know why things will not pan out the way the author thinks it might.

Often, by reading widely (in the Net, it's very easy to Google for example), we will come across a broader range of ideas than what we might have if we were to only think things out by ourselves.

Viewed from this angle, reading widely and discussing with others have its merits, only so that we can form our own considered opinion later.

But even then -- with all its merits - even if you think you have gathered enough reasons to think that the stock price will eventually go up - my personal view is that it is still not enough.

There is still the issue of actual entry and exit timing which is so critical before you can actually bring home the profit.

And that is still - at the end of the day - the KEY issue. And entry and exits are something that you have to learn for yourself if you wish to be independent and successful in the long term. And as a trader, knowing what to do when things turns out wrong is equally, if not more important than knowing what to do when things turns out to be right. Make no mistake - the journey to financial independence through trading/investing in the stock market is not as easy as you might think for the vast majority. The only time it looks easy is during bull market runs when everyone makes money. *grin*

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

The New Hybrids

It's not exactly new technology (the technology has been around for ages), but if Honda Malaysia can promote this, then, it's just a matter of time before the rest of the car makers globally do the same thing (give and take a year or two if not sooner).

What is most impressive is the 31 km per litre fuel consumption claim!

Whilst real life driving won't get this, apparently, you could get something like 15 km for every RM at current fuel prices. That's equivalent to 1,500 km for every RM$100!! For many, this is equivalent to at least 3 to 4 times improvement.

The technological improvement is simply fantastic!

Now, just imagine if just 10% of American drivers switch to Hybrid cars over the next few years. The fuel consumption impact globally could drop in a very significant amount.

The question - as always - is will the big oil cartels allow this? Or will we see this as one-off promotion which will die down over time as fuel prices stay low?

Looks like we do have the technology to defer "peak oil" for a few more decades yet.

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Uncle Sam aritificially "goosing" the Data? lol

I didn't say it. *grin*

Barry Ritzhold said it.

And I didn't pay him to say it *grin*

Here's what he says ....

Source: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/02/gdp-goosed-by-tarp/


GDP Goosed by TARP (maybe)

Over the weekend, a hedgie friend added to our understanding of how bad GDP really was.

We already knew that the rise in inventory contributed 1.29% points to GDP growth. Without the inventory build, the GDP number would have been down 5.1%.And, it means that we are likely looking at a very ugly Q1 GDP.

What we also knew that the deflator fell 0.1% — the first decline since the 1954. If on top of inventories, the deflator had risen 0.4%, as consensus expected, GDP would have been down -5.6%.

What else was buried in the GDP report besides inventory and falling prices that was artificially goosing the data?

The answer? TARP. It turns out that the TARP money given to banks as recapitalization was a major factor in the total GDP number. (but see update below)

How? Uncle Sam buying a financial asset does not contribute to GDP under normal circumstances. But the Treasury purchased these assets at prices discounted to market prices. (Not as cheap as Buffett’s purchases, but still at somewhat of a discount).


So, besides getting a better understanding of how bad US GDP is, I now learnt a new meaning from Barry as to what the phrase "artificially goosing the data means" ...


Tuesday, February 3, 2009

January Barometer

According to Investopedia, the January Barometer is "A theory stating that the movement of the S&P 500 during the month of January sets the stock market’s direction for the year (as measured by the S&P 500). The January Barometer states that if the S&P 500 was up at the end of January compared to the beginning of the month, proponents would expect the stock market to rise during the rest of the year. " - http://www.investopedia.com/terms/j/januarybarometer.asp

Personally, I'm not a fan. I think it's a theory that the mass (i.e. generally ignorant public) can be easily duped with figures, but the reality is that it's not that simple, and probably does more harm than good if followed blindly. Just take a look at the table below:

At first glance, it seems to work - there are more years where the full year's returns are the same direction as January returns.

But a closer examination shows that there are at least 3 problems -- there may be more.

First, the full year returns include January returns. To be a predictor, it needs to separate out January, from the rest of the other 11 months (Feb to Dec), so, strictly speaking, January return should be EXCLUDED. So, in the table above, if January is down, it doesn't mean that the rest of the year is down. In fact, as shown below, in 6 out of 7 times that January is down, the next 11 months is actually UP! *grin*

Second, it doesn't work equally well when January is up versus when January is down. I leave this to you to study the table in detail, and to not blindly accept what Investopedia and any other newspaper columnist says about the January Barometer.

Consider the following years when January is negative.
- 1990 - Jan -5.9%, Year -4.3%, i.e. the rest of the year is actually positive!
- 1998 - Jan -0.02%, Year +16%, i.e. the rest of the year is actually positive!
- 2000 - same pattern - rest of the year is actually positive.
- 2002 - same pattern
- 2003 - same pattern
- 2005 - same pattern
- 2008 - this is the only year where the January Barometer actually works when January is a negative month!!!

In other words, when January is negative, history says that the rest of the year (i.e. the other 11 months) is 6 out of 7 times the OPPOSITE.

Third, such comparisons are far too simplistic, and ignores the high and lows that occurs DURING the year. For example, in 2008 --- yes, January 2008 was a negative month. Yes, entire 2008 was a negative year, and hugely negative too. But the S&P itself went up from March to May 2008. In other words, this January Barometer is far too simplistic to be of any use to the serious trader.

So, treat the January Barometer as something interesting for mass consumption, but don't let it influence your trades unnecessarily.

Some Thoughts on Trends

One of my deep beliefs about financial markets is that trends exist all the time.

As a trader, trends are very important. Ideally, you want to identify trends "early" (and this definition of "early" might not be what you think), jump on it, and hopefully, the trend will continue in the same direction, allowing you to profit from it "before it bends".

But do trends exist all the time?

In my opinion, yes. But it doesn't mean that all trends are exploitable profitably to you as an individual, and we'll come to that later. But trends do exist everywhere and all the time - the secret to understanding lies in the time-frame selected, and finding the right instruments with large enough volatility and liquidity to make it good odds to trade.

For example, in forex, there is bound to be some currency pairs that will exhibit bull market characteristics -- if the currency pair you happen to be looking is bearish, simply invert that pair and you now have a bullish price *grin*.

Similarly, if the trend is going down, there are financial instruments overseas that will allow you to invert that, turning it into a bull market.

Even if the price appears range-bound -- say, moving in between trading channels -- if you split it into shorter time-frames, then, you have a smaller trend that goes up before it hits the upper part of the channel, and then, another smaller trend that goes down before it hits the lower end of the channel. In other words, trends do exist if you drill down deeper.

Whilst trends always exist, it is a completely different question on whether - YOU - as a trader - can profitably exploit it. If you have been trading for some time, I'm sure you understand what I mean.

But this article is NOT about reasons why one CANNOT exploit trends profitably. Actually, I believe this is an extremely important question - one which every trader must personally answer that question for him/herself. For me, it's too complex, and too long an answer to answer here, and it's not my reason for writing this article *grin*.

But a simpler question is do you know how to identify trends in prices? Actually, that's a possible trick question. If you see a price/volume chart, and you cannot tell from a quick visual inspection whether the price is trending or not, then, chances are there is NO trend in the time-frame given to you. (of course, if you drill down, there will be mini-trends as mentioned above).

One successful trader apparently decides whether to enter a trade or not by quick visual inspection of the charts. He used to say that he made his final decision -- after analysis -- by posting the chart at the other end of the room, and then, taking a quick look at the chart for confirmation. More often than not, that quick visual inspection turns out correct. Of course, he is a close student of the markets, and has personally examined millions of price charts over his lifetime.

So, if you're experienced, you can easily tell whether a stock / index is trending or not by quick visual inspection of the price/volume chart. But what if you're not? How do you tell?

Well, a simple rule is to look at the "lows" and "highs" of the price chart. When a stock is making a lower "low", and a lower "high", it suggests that price is trending down. And vice versa. That's one quick way. And in fact, when an experienced trader looks at the charts, he no longer need to consciously look for these lower / higher lows/highs - he merely, with a quick glance, subconsciously absorb whether the stock price is making a higher or lower "lows"/"highs", and is able to quickly determine - in a split second - whether the stock price is trending up or down.

But sometimes, when you look at a given time-frame on the screen -- prices might not fit in more than 3 to 6 months prices. Most traders use short-cuts, by plotting longer-term Moving Averages. Typically 200 day and 50 day Moving Averages or EMAs. When a stock is trading below the 200 day MA, it's generally regarded as bearish because the price is below the average of the last 200 day prices. Whilst these are short-cuts, they obviously have their limitations too. Ultimately, these Moving Averages are just tools created to assist one in deciding whether a stock has been trending in the past or not. These tools should be your servant, not your master.

Other traders uses Multiple Screens or Triple Screen approach, which is to consciously examine a longer-time frame chart such as weekly or monthly candles instead of daily. This would allow one a wider view, and you can see the last 5 or 10 years data in just one screen, to view the trend better.

And then, in the world of Technical Analysis, there are many people who thought a lot about this problem about finding trends "early", and have developed a large variety of technical indicators, generally classed as "trend following indicators". The Moving Average and EMAs are just one small example of a "trend following indicator". Another common one is MACD. You can google stockcharts.com to learn more about it. There are literally dozens (or hundreds of smaller variations) of such trend following indicators in the TA universe.

Personally, I - and a million other traders - like Trend Lines. These are lines drawn that connects the higher lows in a bull market (I call it Up Trend Line or UTL), and the lower highs in a bear market (I call it DTL for Down Trend Line). Trend Lines are a fascinating topic, where the breadth and depth are actually very interesting. For example, Bulkowski has done a lot of work studying this and many other fascinating topic. Not all trend lines are the same, some - with certain characteristics - are more reliable than others, and have more profitable impact than others. However, as a general comment, bear in mind that in recent times, there have been studies overseas done that shows that they have not worked as well as they used to work say 20 years ago. However, they still work enough time and to an extent large enough that it is still generally profitable for a disciplined trader to trade using these tools.

In practice, I use a variety of methods to establish trends, and whether trends is likely to continue or not. A visual inspection of the charts across various time-frames, Trend Lines, EMAs, MACD, Bollinger Bands -- these are the more common ones, and for me, it's more important to develop an excellent understanding on how these works over time. I don't necessarily always look at default parameters, the choice of parameters depends on the actual situation, usually in reference to what works in the past, or what works similarly, but not always.

Naturally, I also fuse what I observe and synthesized from the charts with what I know from the market/stock fundamentals, news, sentiment, etc. The ideal situation is of course when all these analysis matches. Even the risks/price falls should match as well. This is much harder to do in real life, and whenever I'm wrong, hindsight will show me that I've missed something. This is the learning process which I find thoroughly enjoyable.

As I alluded to earlier, knowing if a stock is trending in the past doesn't necessarily mean that the trend will continue. The general rule is that momentum will tend to push prices in the same direction, but this is only a general rule -- exceptions exist all the time, and blind adherence to this rule can be expensive.

So, say you're able to see past trends occuring. The key question is how likely will this trend continue in future, where the future is always an uncertain question?

This is where nothing beats personal and close observation of prices in my experience. You have support and resistance studies, and supports and resistance have many forms - such as past peaks, past valleys, trend line supports, fibonacci levels (and there are always more than 1 fibonacci levels usually), pivot calculations, etc. etc. etc. In fact, the entire study of support and resistance is a fascinating topic in itself too. A deep understanding and observation of how prices behave around these critical areas will tell you much about how prices are likely to develop later, although not in as reliable a way as an exact science. Sometimes, price reversals can happen faster too.

But at the end of the day, trends -- the ones that have happened in the past, and the ones that are "likely" or not continue in future -- means nothing to a trader, unless his money is in the trade.

And when he puts his money in the trade, his opinions cease to matter. What's more important is how prices behaves after he enters the trade. And he obviously must have clear ideas on how to exit the trade when it goes right and when it goes wrong, BEFORE he enters the trade. Trade long enough, and some will go right, and others will go wrong. It's not a matter of if, but when.

So ... what are your thoughts on trends? Is the KLCI going to go up, down or sideways? *grin*

Actually, this is probably one of the less useful but more common questions I've heard, because much depends on the time-frame. And even if KLCI is going to be higher/lower than today in a months time, it doesn't mean it won't go down lower/higher first. And of course, stocks and markets are 2 completely different things -- when markets go up, it doesn't mean your stock will go up by as much or if at all, and vice versa.

But it won't stop those who doesn't know from telling, and it won't stop those who knows from keeping it to themselves *grin*

And ultimately, to a trader, what's far more important is that his equity actually grows, rather than being right publicly or privately. *grin*

Tidying Up the Chatbox

Just a short note to let you know that for this New Year, I have decided to tidy up the cbox users - there are far too many dormant members whom since registration, have never activated their accounts, so, I've just decided to delete all of them. This brings the number of users down to below 200.

Also, since the chatbox belongs to me, and I have a certain objective that I want to achieve with the chatbox before the subscription expires in 2010 -- and they primarily focus on encouraging a positive and constructive atmostphere -- I have also taken the liberty to remove a handful of chatters whom - in my opinion - do not reflect nor share the same positive values. The real world equivalent is like building a fence on one's house, or only letting guests whom you respect to enter your home. In the past, I have clearly been too generous in letting any Tom, Dick and Harry enter this cbox, and sadly, a small handful have chosen to abuse the privilege. Hence, the door.

Take care, be positive and constructive, and all the best wishes for your trading in 2009!

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Gong Xi Fa Cai!

Would like to wish you and your family a Very Happy and Prosperous Chinese New Year!

Best wishes,


Friday, January 16, 2009

Compound Interest

Albert Einstein - in the early part of last century - once declared that "Compound Interest is the Most Powerful force in the Universe".

So powerful, that it's also been described as the 8th Wonder of the World. (which I think is an under-estimation - I would put it the 1st Wonder of the World *grin*)

Warren Buffett - one of the world's richest man living today, if not the World's richest man ever in the history of mankind - is a living example of what Compound Interest can do.

Yes, Compound Interest is that powerful.

But what is Compound Interest really? Do you really understand the mathematics behind Compound Interest?

Imagine this scenario.

Let's say you are a super-investor who can double your money every 2 years.

Yes, 100% return every 2 years.

And every time you doubled your money, you continue to do what you do, i.e. you let your interest work for you.

To me, this is a very, very tall order. Not impossible over the short term - from time to time, you hear of someone doing this. But almost never over a long period like 16 years. Even Warren Buffett himself doesn't do this throughout his nearly 6 decades of investing, and I doubt there is even a single 16 year period where Buffett achieved this. Sure, a year or two here and there interspersed with some lower years, but by and large, he falls short of this.

But let's say you have this ability to obtain 100% return every 2 years, over just a 10 year period, so, let's not talk about 16 years yet.

What does this mean?

For example, let say your living expenses 10 years ago was $50,000, or approximately $4,000 per month.

Of course, 10 years ago, $4,000 per month is not a bad sum, although probably not a terribly large sum.

If you live in KL, $4,000 per month 10 years ago is enough to survive.

Maybe not enough to drive an expensive BMW and live in a nicely renovated bungalow and to eat shark fin soup and abolone regularly, but $4k per month is enough to survive in KL if you watch your expenses.

But my question is what if - instead of spending $50,000 10 years ago, you had invested that in a money making machine that can double your money every 2 years.

How much would that $50,000 10 years ago be worth today?



What if I tell you $1.6 million? Yes, $1,600,000!

Why $1.6 million?

Well, in 10 years, this means that the money has doubled 5 times, if you can double your money in 2 years.

So, 2^5 = 32.

Which means every $1 becomes $32 in 10 years time.

Which means $50,000 becomes $1.6 million in 10 years time.


And that $1.6 million today is just from 1 year saving of expenses 10 years ago.

What about the saving from expenses 11 years ago? 12 years ago? 13 years ago? 16 years ago?

You'd think someone with this ability would be worth at least 8 digits, if not 9 digits today isn't it?

So, why is he wasting his time blogging, sending hundreds of emails, making hundrends of comments all over the Net, spamming every blog?

And worse, not even accepting my genuine business offer of $4 million to $8 million per year on the condition that he allows me to audit his trading records over the past 16 years?


Anyway, as usual, I'm told that I don't know what I'm talking about ... *whistle* *wink* *grin*

Monday, January 12, 2009

Update on $4 Million proposal to Samgoss - A Second $8 Million Proposal

Further to my $4 Million per year proposal to Samgoss, fellow blogger Moolah has also blogged on my Public Offer here - http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/2009/01/local-malaysian-blgger-claims-markets.html

Moolah's Comments

1. "An extremely profitable proposal that Seng has made."

[Seng comment: Yes, I want to emphasize that $4 Million EACH YEAR is a LOT of money to turn down.

Does Sam currently earns $4 Million EACH YEAR?

Seriously Sam, tell me HOW MUCH do you earn EACH YEAR in the last 5 years?

I can guarantee you more - MUCH MUCH MORE - than what you earned in the last 5 years.

Of course, you'll need to provide proof of you past 5 years income at the very least.]

2. "Of course it's a double sworded as this proposal also equates to a massive challenge for Sam to prove that he is not a fake."

[Seng comment: I want to emphasize that whilst it's a massive challenge, it's very simple action for Sam.


Because I am only interested in The Truth.

If the past results are there, I want to emphasize that he doesn't need to fear anything, or need to to do anything more.

Just let his past results speaks for themselves.

The audit will merely discover and report that truth.

You see, when you apply for a $40,000 per annum job (let's not talk about $4 Million per annum job), it is standard procedure for you to fill an H.R. form to state your name, your I/C number, your contact phone number, etc.

In this job, because it relates to a hedge fund investing, your track record is important. So, it's only standard procedure to audit your past claims, so, one needs to see your past trades and verify it with your both the securities firm and the banks. With audited data, we will then do more analysis and come to our own conclusion. Sam, you don't need to try to explain how you did it.

I have no doubt Sam will have made past withdrawals from his stock account (to buy property, car, eat abalone, shark fin soup, etc. as he claimed), so, I want to verify in the audit that money has been withdrawn from the stock broking firm to his bank. Everyone can lie about anything, but PAST financial transactions that has been filed to the regulators/Bank Negara - in theory - cannot lie.

All my request is basic standard info for this type of job. Nothing special.

For $4 Million PER YEAR contract offer, why doesn't Sam want to tell me BASIC, STANDARD data?

What is he afraid of?

What is he hiding?

What is he not telling us?]

3. To be honest, 1500% in 16 years is such a record to be proud off.

[Seng comment: Agree absolutely. I want to add that he is actually much better than that, because in that 16 years, he has withdrawn substantial amount of monies regularly and still achieve his 1,500%]

3. Perhaps iCapital, Tan Teng Boo, should hire Sam here to be the chief investment manager for his closed end fund.

[Seng comment: Yes, I must reluctantly agree. They are my competitors, because every fund manager with a little bit of smarts (doesn't need to be as clever as Buffett) will immediately jump to see if they can hire / create new positions for this super-investor, if his results are genuine.]

4. And if Sam record is as genuine as he proudly proclaim, won't you even want to invest in his funds?"

[Seng comment: Agreed. That's my original proposal, which is specially intended to let EVERYONE, including and ESPECIALLY Sam's followers to benefit from this proposal.

Currently, there are TOO MANY real life problems to follow Sam's call-
1. It takes a lot of constant monitoring and work to follow his convoluted blog timely.
2. There is time-lag from the time he buy/sell to the time he blogs.
3. By the time you want to buy or sell something, the time lag means price will have gone up or gone down.
4. Sam's backhand - which means you misses out.
5. Sam keeping his best ideas to himself.
6. 100 other reasons and too long to blog about it.

So, why should anyone - using Sam's own words in his blog - "like ck5354, Dylan, ccdev, newbies n ivtac" accept inferior method now?

So, I came up with this idea, so that EVERYONE now have a chance to get EXACTLY what Sam gets, and EVERYONE in his blog should be HAPPY and join my suggestion.

I really hope to hear from "ck5354, Dylan, ccdev, newbies n ivtac" that they like this idea.

Isn't this a good idea? If it's not good, why is it not good? Write to me, and tell me objectively and concretely why it's not a good idea.

You see, if we can pool Sam's own money TOGETHER with EVERYONE's, then, Sam's work is easier also.

He doesn't need to blog anymore. With his spare time, he can use my chatbox and my blog to continue to rubbish TA methods and to rubbish STOP LOSSES!

Yet, so many of Sam's "followers" are against this business proposal!

I am genuinely dissappointed that Sam's followers have not thought about Sam's BEST interest.

If they did, they all will be asking Sam to accept my business proposal.

Sam makes the Most Money out of my proposal.

His supporters will make MORE money than they did before.

Everyone here also Makes Money!


Isn't this logical?]

Jason Ups His Offer to $20 Million above my estimation

Jason responded with an even bigger offer than I estimated - https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=935072059836759128&postID=6590073621444877083.

1. "Put me on the audit team. I don't trust the majority of Malaysian audit firms. (having worked on their teams or with friends who worked there)

[Seng comment: No problem. I will also be on the audit team myself.]

2. If I like what I see, I will personally put another RM2 million into this fund. And will attempt to put RM20 million in from friends and family."

[Seng comment: Jason, I am sure ALL of Sam's followers will thank-you from the bottom of their heart for your support!

With your extra contributions, Sam can now look forward to $8 Million Income in 2009!]

Sam turned down my $4 Million Offer

1. See his blog here. http://samgang.blogspot.com/2009/01/v-wow-4-mil-offer-by-sour-seng-ah-seng.html

2. From a business perspective, I am extremely dissappointed with his childish response. There are MORE nonsense, and no serious consideration at all. No serious business man would respond like this in real life.

3. He responded by showing what he claimed to be his Public Bank pass book voluntarily to everyone.

a. How do we know this is his passbook and not someone else's without knowing his full name or his I/C number, and have this verified with Public Bank management?

b. Why show just one snapshot? Why not show everything continuously over the past 16 years to the external auditor in confidence? The external auditor can verify with Public Bank management.

Sam, do you see the problem with your response?

Sam's Compounded Annual Returns are MUCH higher than 1500%

You must remember that:

1. In 1992, Sam starts with $12k, as he said in his latest article above.

2. In 2008, Sam's fund is around $700k?

3. The yearly return = (700,000 / 12,000) ^ (1/16) = 28.93% per annum.

4. However, his true compounded yearly return would have been much higher than this, because over the years, he has withdrawn monies for the following purposes:

a. He purchased in his own words "properties". (Yes, he mentioned this more than once in his blog). KL properties - especially when renovated so nicely in his blog - is not cheap.

b. He purchased a BMW car, and very likely more than just one car over the last 17 years. BMW cars are not cheap like Proton cars ...

c. He withdrawn his fund to pay for his living expenses. Living in KL - even on poor taste - is not cheap.

d. He has expensive taste - just look at the food he boasts about.

e. Even if you conservatively estimate $4,000 per month to live in KL, which is EXTREMELY cheap, already, this is $50,000 per year, or $800,000 over last 16 years. Who pays for his living expenses? Is this from his investment earnings?

f. Conservatively, if you believe his blog, he would have spent additional $2 million to $3 million or even more just on items a., b., c., d., e. over the last 16 years.

g. What about sex? Do you think he pays for that or do you think he has a girlfriend or a wife? Add that to the expenditure.

h. Which means, he must have used just $12,000 to generate say $3 million to $4 million OR MORE at the least in the last 16 years.

h. But if he had compounded his returns, it would be much bigger than $3 million to $4 million at the least. Imagine if he had no spending? The monies saved in earlier years would have grown even more!!

i. So, my wild, rough guess is something like 100% per annum. He should be able to achieve this very easily, especially, when he has earned 299% over 26 months, or more than 115% per annum.

j. Do you see why this guy is MUCH BETTER than Warren Buffett?


This guy deserves to be investigated and audited in detail.


He claims to be THAT good, I don't know of anyone else on earth that comes close to his results.

All newspapers - not just Malaysian, but the Entire World - must know about him.

So, Sam, I am giving you a 2nd chance to have your results audited.

Why can't we deal like business-men?

I want to be your Manager.

Business-men don't need to rubbish each other.

I am not upset with you at all. I'm annoyed at your childish nonsense, but I'm never upset at you.

I just see a wonderful - once in a lifetime business opportunity - in you. If all your claims are true. We can make money together. I see GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY IN YOU!

My offer is genuine, because throughout my entire life, I have NEVER met anyone with a record like yours.

I have a close friend who is a Chief Investment Officer in a global financial organization based overseas (and his organization also has some investments in KLSE), and he has never heard of anyone with a record like you who managed to achieve what you did without leverage.

Conversely, he has seen, heard, and met far too many people who boasts like you, but in reality, are just "KOSONG", or are part of a syndicate.

So, if you are genuine, let's do business together, and let's start by having the results of yours audited.

Alternative Proposals If You don't want to work for me

With your talent Samgoss, I have MANY alternative proposals for you even if you don't like $8 Million PER YEAR!

Even if you don't want to work for me, but you can work for someone else, I also have MANY BUSINESS PROPOSALS for you! E.g. just look at the biography by Alice Schroeder on Buffett called "The Snowball". I want to get someone like Alice to write a biography on Samgoss life AFTER we audit!

We can discuss ANYTHING. But let's audit your results first. No need to fear anything if it's true. There's an English saying that says "Why would I want to kill the goose that lays the golden egg?" Samgoss - you ARE my Golden Goose!

I hope to hear a serious response this time.