The background is we were discussing a rather passionate topic close to our hearts which is Selling.
The primary participants are bullbear vs Moolah. Related participants are myself, dorraidd, and a few others.
bullbear is of the position that for a stock like PBBANK, one would only need to buy and hold forever. He does have a qualification that provided the fundmentals don't deteriorate, and his timing appears to be to wait until there is confirmed deterioration.
In fact, from past discussions, bullbear indicated that he is inspired by his friends who has successfully held stocks for many, many years (the impression given is that it is decades). He also doesn't believe that he can market time successfully. For example, when asked why he didn't sell now, he says he thinks that we are already 2/3rd through the bear market and there is only 1/3rd left to go. He qualifies that he doesn't really know from memory.
bullbear naturally and strongly believe in this Buy and Hold view, and thinks it applies to many other stocks as well, that may range in 100 (?), so long as it meets his requirement. Unfortunately, I don't know exactly his requirement, but I welcome him to comment on it if he wants to elaborate further.
On the other hand, we have Moolah who looks at the situation from a different angle.
From his perspective, there are at least 2 reasons to sell PBBANK today, or as soon as possible.
The reference price is $10.1.
His reasons are: 1. When viewed over the last decade, we are smacked right in the middle of a GLOBAL Bear market. The belief is that bull markets rarely comes to Malaysia (about once every few years or decades), and when the bear starts, they will not immediately stop. The implication is that things will get worse, and PBBANK will be dragged down with the rest of the stocks. 2. The stock suffers a potential risk that it is highly dependent on certain large shareowner and founder still around. Since he is not getting younger even though everyone wants him to live forever, the risks of him leaving gets increasingly higher as he ages.
Hence, this experiment.
Treat this like a Blog Capsule.
Let's open this email again in 2 years time from now to see who is right.
Will it be bullbear - the advocate of Buy and Hold i.e. in 2 years time, PBBANK will be higher than $10.1?
Or will it be Moolah - the advocate that there is a time to sell, and the time around now would seem close. (I think he prefers higher, but he believes deep in his heart that even now, the time is to sell). I.e. in 2 years time, PBBANK will not be significantly higher than $10.1, and more likely to be lower than $10.1?
I guess, in this case, only time will tell, although I of course do have my own opinion ... :-)