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Monday, January 5, 2009

News will not make you money

Just saw this on Bloomberg this evening - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a1Ab6lUay5TE&refer=news

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The steepest plunge in crude prices on record may be setting up oil investors for a rally this year, if history is any guide.

The so-called forward curve of futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange suggests oil will rise 28 percent to $60.10 a barrel by December. The curve looks almost the same as 10 years ago, after Russia’s default and the collapse of the Long-Term Capital Management LP hedge fund raised concerns that a global economic slowdown would reduce energy demand. Crude prices fell 25 percent in the final quarter of 1998, the steepest drop in seven years.

Basically, Bloomberg is now saying - on January 5, 2009, and note the date - that because of the steep "contango", it's setting up crude for a nice rally ... lol

The contango was of course noticed earlier - I blogged on it at the end of Dec here - http://fusioninvestor.blogspot.com/2008/12/light-crude-oil-is-this-normal-contango.html

There, I noted that the contango was probably at its steepest on Dec 19.

And Bloomberg reports it 2 weeks later on Jan 5 ... lol

I have the highest respect for Bloomberg news, but if one were to blindly follow Bloomberg, do you think one can make as much money than if one were to follow one's own personal convictions and observations?

For example, will Bloomberg immediately report the steep contango to you when it first happen, or only after vested interests have taken position before Bloomberg announces the news?

Always learn how to fish for yourself, never rely on others to fish for you.

Best wishes!

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