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Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Nymex Crude Oil: Head & Shoulder formation - Quick short trade

This morning (US time, night time Malaysia), I closed my long crude oil position and went short after anticipating the Head and Shoulder formation.

As I'm still reasonably bullish over the long term from a fundamental perspective, my short position is just for a quick intra-day trade, which is now closed at a quick profit.

My initial thoughts is that if future technical set ups are right, I lean towards intra-day shorts, until I've seen a new bottom to go long again. Like most thoughts, this is extremely fluid. And of course, one needs to be prepared to jump back in at a higher price if situations reverse when I sleep ... *grin*

The chart that triggered the idea is below.

Fairly typical, textbook stuff. You have a nice run up since $34 over the past fortnight, and then, the Head and Shoulder formation reared its ugly head.

Probably, such opportunities seem a lot less in Bursa where the market is much smaller (contrast the Nymex crude oil market is GLOBAL), where presence of one or two large players in Bursa basically mean they can decide whether to move the price up or down at their own whim.

So far, my own limited experience with Technical Analysis indicates that it works wonderfully well in the US. I must say the trade opportunities with the right set-ups overseas are a lot, in comparison to Bursa. In a sense, whilst I hope this good run continues, I feel a deep sense of regret that Bursa market is not quite the same as the US markets, as it means a completely different type of trading hours to trade the US.

For future reference.

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